US Labor Market Watch: August Payrolls - Will the Rate-Hike Question Be Answered?
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Guolian Minsheng Securities reviews August 2026 US payrolls: nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 against 55,000 expected, with June-July revised up a combined 55,000—July flipping from -23,000 to +21,000—reversing the prior downward-revision pattern and pointing to a phased repair in a low-hiring labor market. CME FedWatch's implied September hike probability rose from about 52.4% to 60.2%; equity futures and gold fell while Treasury yields rose. Gains were highly concentrated: food services and drinking places (+59,000) and local-government education (+42,000) accounted for over 60% of the increase; healthcare added just 13,000 versus a 32,000 twelve-month average, and information cut 23,000 jobs, including 8,000 in computing infrastructure, data processing and web hosting, as AI-related restructuring persists. Unemployment held at 4.1% and participation rose to 61.6%, but hourly earnings cooled further (+0.3% MoM, +3.1% YoY), still lagging inflation. The report's base case is to hold the policy rate, with no September hike; the stronger payrolls are, the more CPI weighs on the decision (July PCE 3.7%), and even a surprise hike would not establish a basis for consecutive increases. No stock recommendations or targets were given.
Key exhibits
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