Goldman Sachs Harmonic Drive Systems (6324.T): Beyond the Cycle — Chinese Actuator Opportunity Emerging Alongside US Humanoid Expansion. Reiterate Buy
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Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating on Harmonic Drive Systems (6324.T), asserting the company is positioned to transcend the current industrial robotics downcycle. The bank maintains a target price of 5,000 Japanese yen, based on a 40x forward price-to-earnings multiple for 2027, implying approximately 30% upside. The investment thesis centers on emerging actuator opportunities driven by China's automation upgrade and the commercialization of humanoid robots by US technology giants.
Goldman Sachs projects a 15% revenue compound annual growth rate from 2026 to 2030, primarily fueled by the actuator business. The total addressable Chinese actuator market is expected to reach $20 billion by 2030, with Harmonic Drive Systems leveraging its technological edge in strain wave gears to capture an estimated 20% market share. Concurrently, expansion into humanoid robotics by US firms such as Tesla and Boston Dynamics is anticipated to generate substantial incremental orders, with sample testing already reportedly underway.
Financially, 2026 revenue is projected at 120 billion Japanese yen, representing 10% year-over-year growth, while the actuator segment contributes 30%. Operating margins are expected to expand from 35% in 2025 to 38% in 2027 through scale efficiencies. To accommodate demand, the company plans a second manufacturing facility in China by 2027, doubling capacity to two million units annually. Unit prices for humanoid actuators are projected to decrease from 50,000 Japanese yen in 2026 to 20,000 Japanese yen by 2030, offset by a tenfold volume increase. Key downside risks include actuator production yield rates falling below 80%, intensifying price competition from Chinese rivals, and potential US tariff escalation.