Citi — BoJ Policy Meeting Preview: Terminal Rate Hinges on the Fed and Dissenting Votes
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Citi's preview of the upcoming Bank of Japan policy meeting frames the key question as where the terminal policy rate settles, a judgment the team ties to the Federal Reserve's own path and to the potential for dissenting votes within the BoJ. The note's exhibits map the market backdrop across rates, currencies, equities and positioning. Figure 1 compares market pricing of BoJ policy with Citi's forecast, and Figure 2 shows policy-rate changes implied by the OIS market in basis points. The equity-currency nexus appears in Figure 4, which tracks the correlation between TOPIX and USD/JPY retracements from recent highs since January 2024, and Figure 5, the CitiFX positioning index for real-money investors. The US rates backdrop is captured through 10-year and 30-year term premia in Figure 6. On Japanese equities, Figure 7 follows the banking sector's relative price performance against TOPIX together with yield spreads, while Figure 8 scores crowding across the TSE-17 sectors. Collectively the exhibits provide the market-pricing, positioning and sector context for the meeting preview.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
