Bernstein Asia Emerging Robotics: The Barometer (March-April 2026)

Bernstein's Asia Emerging Robotics Barometer for March and April 2026 indicates continued growth momentum across the region, tempered by mounting supply chain constraints and geopolitical uncertainties. Industry order volumes expanded 15% sequentially during this two-month period, primarily propelled by accelerating automation demand within Chinese manufacturing. However, average capacity utilization slipped to 80%, down from 85% in the fourth quarter of 2025, signaling emerging excess capacity. Competitive dynamics are shifting notably. Chinese robotics manufacturers captured a 45% market share, representing a 5 percentage point gain over the prior year. Meanwhile, Japanese robot exports grew 8% year-over-year on strong semiconductor equipment demand, while South Korean imports declined 3% due to accelerated local substitution efforts. Profitability metrics face slight pressure, with the industry's average gross margin contracting 1 percentage point to 32% year-over-year. This compression is partly driven by supply chain bottlenecks; prices for critical components like reducers surged 10% year-over-year. Geopolitical tensions are also causing some multinational corporations to delay planned robotics investments in Asia. Despite these headwinds, structural drivers remain intact. Rising labor costs continue to push small and medium-sized enterprises toward automation adoption. Additionally, industry research and development spending has increased to 12% of revenue, with a strategic focus on integrating artificial intelligence capabilities into robotic systems. While Bernstein anticipates that sustained supply chain disruptions could moderate industry growth in the second half of 2026, breakthroughs in AI integration could serve as a powerful new catalyst.

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