Morgan Stanley on Centuria Capital Group (CNI.AX): Reset
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Morgan Stanley maintains Overweight on Centuria Capital Group (CNI.AX) after FY26 results but cuts the target price by A$0.40 to A$1.60 from A$2.00; the stock closed at A$1.19 on August 27, 2026. FY27 guidance of 13.0 cents EPS (NPAT A$130mn) sits below Visible Alpha consensus of about A$140mn, yet the bank views the guidance as safe and largely underpinned by recurring revenue; at 8.7x P/E—or roughly 12x excluding Bass Credit and property performance fees—material downside looks limited. Estimates move lower: FY27e EPS falls to 13.1 cents from 14.1, with FY28 and FY29 cut 8% on higher interest expense and an effective tax rate rising to about 11% (FY26: 9%); FY27 EBIT should grow 20% but NPAT only 15%. The target blends a base DCF of A$1.65 (beta raised to 1.2 for Reset and credit execution risk) with NAV of A$1.38; bull/base/bear scenarios of A$2.24/A$1.59/A$0.78 are weighted 30/50/20. ResetData is the swing factor: guidance assumes 6MW of the 7MW AIF6 project is deployed by June 2027, and rate cuts or a full FY28 profit contribution would add earnings upside. The AGM falls on December 1, 2026.