J.P. Morgan: The Great Broadband Bake Off — U.S. Cable & Telecom Results & Reflections
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J.P. Morgan analyzes the intensifying competitive landscape of the U.S. broadband market following 1Q26 results. Cable operators face sustained subscriber losses, while telecom providers gain traction through fiber and fixed wireless access (FWA) expansions. In 1Q26, Comcast reported a net loss of 105,000 broadband subscribers and Charter lost 82,000. Conversely, AT&T added 225,000 fiber subscribers, and Verizon gained 375,000 FWA subscribers.
Intensifying price competition adds further pressure. Cable operators are introducing low-cost tiers, such as a $30/month plan, to mitigate churn, though this compresses ARPU by approximately 2-3%. Network investment strategies are diverging, with cable accelerating DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades and telecom expanding fiber footprints. FTTH coverage is projected to exceed 100 million homes by 2027. The report suggests ongoing competitive pressures could drive industry consolidation, potentially targeting smaller operators like Altice USA. Video subscriber attrition continues to accelerate due to streaming alternatives. Industry capital expenditure is projected to grow 5-8% in 2026.
J.P. Morgan maintains Overweight ratings on Comcast (CMCSA, target $55), AT&T (T, target $30), T-Mobile US (TMUS, target $200), and Frontier Communications (FYBR, target $40). Neutral ratings apply to Charter (CHTR, target $350), Verizon (VZ, target $45), and Lumen Technologies (LUMN, target $10). Altice USA (ATUS) retains an Underweight rating with a $5 target.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
