JPMorgan: Samsung Electronics: Multiple Semi Order Wins and Higher Shareholder Return Potential; Raise PT to W300K, Maintain Overweight
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JPMorgan maintains an Overweight rating on Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and raises the December 2026 target price from W240,000 to W300,000, based on 2.2x 2026/2027 estimated price-to-book. Samsung has secured multiple orders across HBM and foundry segments, including OpenAI-related HBM projects projected to generate $1.9 billion in revenue and 4nm LPU30 orders that should narrow foundry losses.
The memory industry is entering a multi-year upcycle expected to last through 2028. JPMorgan projects Samsung's Semiconductor (DS) division will achieve a record operating profit of W254 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 900% year-over-year growth and a 30% CAGR through 2028. Earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 were upgraded by 55% and 70% to W36,859 and W50,550 per share, respectively, driven by higher DRAM and NAND ASP assumptions.
Shareholder returns present substantial upside. After planned buybacks and fixed dividends, management could distribute over W80 trillion by end-2026. At least W50 trillion is expected for dividends to meet Korean high-yield standards. The valuation premium over prior peak cycle multiples reflects improved foundry orders and the multi-year memory upcycle. Key downside risks include potential labor strikes in May and operating expense pressures from profit-sharing agreements.