J.P. Morgan: AI Server ODMs — Key Market Dynamics and Competitive Highlights
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Key Views
Nvidia's GPU supply chain remains stable. Foxconn and Quanta lead NVL72 rack supply with shares of approximately 40–45% and 25–30%, respectively. Wiwynn is engaging with Oracle and Meta as a second-source candidate for VR200, while Dell may add Compal as an incremental supplier. On the ASIC side, TPU/Trillium and T3 stand out as key programs. ASIC servers are structurally more customized, supporting ODM margins and reducing CSP switching risk given entrenched NPI partnerships.
New AI architectures including LPU, CPX, and Vera CPU racks raise barriers to entry, concentrating competition among a few leading players.
Outlook
Despite margin pressure from rising silicon ASPs, absolute profit dollars should grow on volume and MVA expansion. Catalysts include earnings prints and improved visibility into the 2027 capex cycle.
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