Nomura USD/CNY Fixing Model: Projection 6.7863
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Nomura's USD/CNY daily fixing model projects a central parity rate of 6.7863 for July 1, 2026. This represents a 246-pip decline from the previous projection of 6.8109 and sits 11 pips above the prior official close. After incorporating the countercyclical factor, the adjusted projection comes in at 6.7951, which is 158 pips below the last fixing. The primary contributors to the projected shift are the Russian ruble, South Korean won, Australian dollar, and euro, ranked by their weighted impact. The model's daily error chart shows significant recent volatility, with errors ranging between -1,200 and 600 pips from April through July 2026. Additionally, historical daily changes in the fixing have fluctuated within a range of approximately -150 to +150 pips since November 2025. Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, the report highlights a calendar of key events that could influence RMB exchange rates. These include the Politburo meeting in late July, the National Day Golden Week from October 4 to 7, the APEC summit in Shenzhen this November, and both the Central Economic Work Conference and another Politburo meeting in December. Furthermore, US President Trump has indicated that Chinese President Xi is expected to visit the United States at the end of 2026, which could significantly shape market sentiment.