Goldman Sachs Asia-Pacific Strategy: Earnings Revision Leading Indicator (ERLI) September 2026 Pulse Check — Upgrade Cycle Intact, But at a Slower Pace
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Key Views
- The ERLI, a leading indicator built to anticipate turns in the direction of analyst earnings estimate revisions across Asia-Pacific markets, continues to signal an ongoing upgrade phase for regional earnings estimates.
- While the direction of the cycle is preserved, its pace has moderated; the upgrade phase is expected to persist at a more gradual tempo rather than accelerating.
Outlook
For Asia-Pacific equity strategy, the message is continued, though decelerating, earnings revision support: momentum persists, but with reduced intensity. The intact-but-slower profile of the ERLI upgrade cycle frames the forward earnings backdrop for the region, indicating that upgrades remain the dominant direction of revision activity even as their pace eases. This tempering of upgrade velocity is the key nuance investors should carry away from the September 2026 assessment.