Nomura USD/CNY Fixing Model: Forecast: 6.7069
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Abstract
Nomura's USD/CNY fixing model projects a daily central parity of 6.7069 for the renminbi against the US dollar, as of the September 4, 2026 publication. The note is chart-driven, presenting three exhibits. The first shows the top four weighted overnight contributions to the change in the model's forecast, computed excluding the counter-cyclical factor, isolating the market drivers behind the projected move in the fixing. The second tracks recent model errors—again excluding counter-cyclical factor adjustments—indicating how closely projections have matched actual fixings in recent sessions. The third charts the daily change in the official USD/CNY fixing itself, providing context on the size and direction of recent adjustments. Together, the exhibits frame the 6.7069 forecast through three lenses: decomposition of overnight inputs, model accuracy, and realized fixing momentum. The publication contains no ratings, target prices, or earnings forecasts; it is a quantitative, model-based estimate of the next central parity rate.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
