JPMorgan China Energy: Post-Maduro Venezuela — Limited Impact on China Oil Majors, Tailwinds for Nan Ya Plastics and Chemicals
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Following the Trump administration's military action to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, JPMorgan examines the implications for China's energy sector. The bank's commodities team estimates Venezuelan oil production could temporarily drop up to 50% due to operational disruptions or preventive shutdowns. However, production could quickly rebound, reaching 1.4 million barrels per day within two years and potentially hitting 2.5 million b/d over the next decade, compared to the current 0.8–0.9 million b/d.
Investors are concerned that Chinese companies might be forced to exit Venezuelan assets or lose access to discounted crude. JPMorgan provides three key clarifications: Venezuela accounts for 4% of China's 2025 crude imports, mostly processed by independent teapot refineries rather than listed majors; Sinopec and CNOOC hold no commercial assets in Venezuela, while PetroChina's exposure sits mainly at the parent-company level; and any loss of Venezuelan crude would have limited refining impact as alternative heavy crudes are readily available.
The combined revenue exposure of China's oil majors to Venezuela remains below 2%. PetroChina's main exposure is via the MPE3 project, representing roughly 30,000 b/d or just 1% of its total output. Chinese oilfield service companies are expected to see limited direct benefits, with Western firms better positioned.
JPMorgan maintains an Overweight rating on PetroChina (857 HK), projecting a second-half 2025 dividend of RMB 0.26 per share, equating to a 3.6% yield on the H-share price. The bank also reiterates Overweight on Nan Ya Plastics and Hengli Petrochemical, citing favorable macro conditions for chemical recovery, while keeping Sinopec (386 HK) at Neutral pending strategic clarity