Citi US Economics: Core PCE Tracker After the August CPI and PPI Releases
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Following the release of August CPI and PPI details, Citi's US economics team tracks August core PCE inflation at +0.29% month-on-month and +3.14% year-on-year. Within the details, core services excluding housing are expected to rise 0.39% m/m, boosted primarily by airfare components. The team emphasizes that annual revisions introduce substantial uncertainty around the August core PCE print, though these revisions are expected to lower annual core PCE by roughly 30 basis points, potentially pulling the year-on-year reading lower. Overall, Citi views the 0.29% m/m and 3.14% y/y tracking estimates as the baseline ahead of the next official PCE release, with revision effects a further downside influence on the annual figure. The note itself is a one-page flash comment; the remainder comprises analyst certification and disclosures. It contains no individual equity ratings, target prices, or quantitative projections for the Federal Reserve's policy rate path or other macro indicators.