Goldman Sachs Natural Gas Analyst: US Gas Weak in 2027, Until Demand Growth Is Large Enough by 2029
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Goldman Sachs' natural gas team expects US softness in 2027, with balances not tightening enough until demand growth becomes large enough in 2029. After 18 years of mostly oversupplied markets, LNG exports and power demand are pushing US demand growth toward supply growth; pricing should oscillate within $2.50–$5.00/mmBtu as timing mismatches dominate. For 2026, supply and demand both grow slightly above 4 Bcf/d; end-October storage of 3,768 Bcf sits well below the 4,017 Bcf record—loose but not congested. Since April, Henry Hub has averaged $2.91 as Freeport LNG's (2 Bcf/d) extended outage since July 10 and new Permian egress weighed; Goldman cut 4Q26/1Q27 forecasts to $2.90/$2.95. 2027 is the key change: a 2 Bcf/d Permian production upgrade (ramp assumption raised from 200 to 250 mmcf/d per month) leaves supply growth more than 2 Bcf/d above the 3.8 Bcf/d demand increase, end-2027 storage above 4,300 Bcf, and the 2027 NYMEX forecast cut from $3.50 to $2.80; producers are advised to hedge 2027 exposure, though investors should not yet short 2027 outright. From the 2030–31 winter, new LNG start-ups and depleting Haynesville growth inventory require Henry Hub above $4/mmBtu in 2031, leaving $4.50 2031/2032 forecasts skewed to upside before mid-2030s prices fall back below $4.
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