UBS Asia Fixed Income and FX Strategy: Core Themes and Top Trades
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UBS's Asia fixed income and FX strategy piece sets out its core themes and top trades, supported by a chart pack spanning macro drivers and regional markets. S&P 500 valuations appear well supported within the team's P/E framework, while the dollar's trade-weighted index is shown alongside outflows from US assets as a share of GDP on a four-quarter moving average. Gold prices are charted against changes in US 5-year real rates. Regional inputs include a market preferences overview, Asian emerging-market CPI inflation, and a Korea balance-of-payments summary showing the current account trending above 20%. A further chart asks whether a gradual rise in 10-year yields would force a stronger policy response. On currencies, USD/PHP has broken out into a new trading range, with recent history suggesting GBI-EM inclusion could attract roughly US$3bn of inflows. Together the exhibits underpin the team's trade recommendations across Asian rates and currencies.
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