Goldman Sachs Global 80 Charts: Signals from Global Transportation Markets
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Abstract
Goldman Sachs' global transportation chart pack surveys freight, rates and travel indicators. Global air cargo volumes grew mid-single digits year-over-year in the third quarter, while ocean freight was soft (low-single-digit growth) on weather disruptions. Planned imports into Los Angeles show strong September momentum (four-week moving-average TEU trends). European hub freight trends softened slightly over the summer, affected by changes to de minimis rules for small parcels. Forward curves price in lower fourth-quarter rates but not a collapse (spot SCFI Europe versus September/October/November 2026 forwards). U.S. West Coast container dwell times for trucking and warehousing remain far below congestion peaks. Christmas holiday airfares are up year-over-year on short-haul routes flown by Ryanair, IAG and Lufthansa, but jet fuel costs have risen sharply. Zurich passenger volumes are up 4.5% year-to-date but should slow into winter on capacity cuts and base effects. In dry bulk, the orderbook-to-fleet share is rising, with new orders at roughly 17% of fleet size.
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