HSBC Hong Kong Financials: Top Ten Q&A on Cross-Border Wealth Flows
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Key Views
Hong Kong wealth management revenue is expected to grow approximately 12% annually, contributing 18% of banking sector revenue by 2030, up from 14% in 2025. Regulatory easing and product diversification—including the Wealth Management Connect, QDII expansion, and potential ETF and insurance connect schemes—are primary drivers. HSBC Holdings' wealth management revenue is forecast to grow 14% annually, outpacing peers. Hong Kong Exchange should benefit as cross-border equity trading rises from 30% to 40% of total turnover by 2030. Chinese brokers' share in cross-border business may climb from 25% to 35%.
Outlook
Individual quotas under the Wealth Management Connect could double to RMB 2 million in 2026. Key downside risk: a sharper-than-expected mainland economic slowdown could reduce growth below 10%.
Recommended Securities
- HSBC Holdings: Overweight, target price HKD 85
- Hong Kong Exchange: Overweight, target price HKD 380
- BOC Hong Kong: Hold, target price HKD 30
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
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