Bernstein | ASML: A High-NA EUV Primer—Shrinking Never Stops

Bernstein's primer argues High-NA (0.55 NA anamorphic) EUV is the next critical lithography tool as logic and DRAM keep shrinking, with production insertion likely from 2027. Keeping the 13.5nm wavelength, High-NA lifts resolution from ~13nm to 8nm with higher contrast—smaller features, lower doses, fewer masks, simpler flows—but halves the exposure field, hurting throughput and forcing stitching of large logic dies. Cost-wise, a single High-NA exposure already beats three Low-NA exposures in logic but not two; in DRAM, which needs no stitching, High-NA is already cheaper than Low-NA double exposure. Hence DRAM adopts first—Samsung and SK Hynix around 2027 (D1d)—while logic scales in 2028–2030; Intel validated High-NA production readiness at 18A, with Samsung and TSMC likely around A10 (~2030). Slower insertion would not impair economics and could even extend profitable Low-NA demand. Lithography intensity is rising: ASML holds >90% of total lithography share, monopolizes EUV, and has grown from ~16% of WFE in 2022 to ~22% in 2025 (lithography was a US$29bn WFE segment in 2025, compounding 17% over a decade versus 14% for WFE). Tool roadmaps (EXE:5200B through 5400E; NXE 3800F/4200G/4200H) advance, and Hyper-NA R&D is already underway. Outperform reiterated; no target price.