1977 年致股东信 · 官方原文 + 完整中文翻译 + 老董解读(初稿)
本页呈现伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司 1977 年度股东信的完整官方英文原文、经逐段核对的完整中文翻译,以及老董的解读(初稿)。官方原文在构建时从公司官网抓取并解码 Windows-1252 标点,仅截取 <PRE> 块,经 React 正常转义渲染;远程脚本与本块以外的 HTML 一律不会进入页面。中文翻译与解读为编辑方工作成果,并非巴菲特本人文字。
官方英文原文
To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
Operating earnings in 1977 of $21,904,000, or $22.54 per
share, were moderately better than anticipated a year ago. Of
these earnings, $1.43 per share resulted from substantial
realized capital gains by Blue Chip Stamps which, to the extent
of our proportional interest in that company, are included in our
operating earnings figure. Capital gains or losses realized
directly by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or its insurance subsidiaries
are not included in our calculation of operating earnings. While
too much attention should not be paid to the figure for any
single year, over the longer term the record regarding aggregate
capital gains or losses obviously is of significance.
Textile operations came in well below forecast, while the
results of the Illinois National Bank as well as the operating
earnings attributable to our equity interest in Blue Chip Stamps
were about as anticipated. However, insurance operations, led
again by the truly outstanding results of Phil Liesche’s
managerial group at National Indemnity Company, were even better
than our optimistic expectations.
Most companies define “record” earnings as a new high in
earnings per share. Since businesses customarily add from year
to year to their equity base, we find nothing particularly
noteworthy in a management performance combining, say, a 10%
increase in equity capital and a 5% increase in earnings per
share. After all, even a totally dormant savings account will
produce steadily rising interest earnings each year because of
compounding.
Except for special cases (for example, companies with
unusual debt-equity ratios or those with important assets carried
at unrealistic balance sheet values), we believe a more
appropriate measure of managerial economic performance to be
return on equity capital. In 1977 our operating earnings on
beginning equity capital amounted to 19%, slightly better than
last year and above both our own long-term average and that of
American industry in aggregate. But, while our operating
earnings per share were up 37% from the year before, our
beginning capital was up 24%, making the gain in earnings per
share considerably less impressive than it might appear at first
glance.
We expect difficulty in matching our 1977 rate of return
during the forthcoming year. Beginning equity capital is up 23%
from a year ago, and we expect the trend of insurance
underwriting profit margins to turn down well before the end of
the year. Nevertheless, we expect a reasonably good year and our
present estimate, subject to the usual caveats regarding the
frailties of forecasts, is that operating earnings will improve
somewhat on a per share basis during 1978.
Textile Operations
The textile business again had a very poor year in 1977. We
have mistakenly predicted better results in each of the last two
years. This may say something about our forecasting abilities,
the nature of the textile industry, or both. Despite strenuous
efforts, problems in marketing and manufacturing have persisted.
Many difficulties experienced in the marketing area are due
primarily to industry conditions, but some of the problems have
been of our own making.
A few shareholders have questioned the wisdom of remaining
in the textile business which, over the longer term, is unlikely
to produce returns on capital comparable to those available in
many other businesses. Our reasons are several: (1) Our mills in
both New Bedford and Manchester are among the largest employers
in each town, utilizing a labor force of high average age
possessing relatively non-transferable skills. Our workers and
unions have exhibited unusual understanding and effort in
cooperating with management to achieve a cost structure and
product mix which might allow us to maintain a viable operation.
(2) Management also has been energetic and straightforward in its
approach to our textile problems. In particular, Ken Chace’s
efforts after the change in corporate control took place in 1965
generated capital from the textile division needed to finance the
acquisition and expansion of our profitable insurance operation.
(3) With hard work and some imagination regarding manufacturing
and marketing configurations, it seems reasonable that at least
modest profits in the textile division can be achieved in the
future.
Insurance Underwriting
Our insurance operation continued to grow significantly in
1977. It was early in 1967 that we made our entry into this
industry through the purchase of National Indemnity Company and
National Fire and Marine Insurance Company (sister companies) for
approximately $8.6 million. In that year their premium volume
amounted to $22 million. In 1977 our aggregate insurance premium
volume was $151 million. No additional shares of Berkshire
Hathaway stock have been issued to achieve any of this growth.
Rather, this almost 600% increase has been achieved through
large gains in National Indemnity’s traditional liability areas
plus the starting of new companies (Cornhusker Casualty Company
in 1970, Lakeland Fire and Casualty Company in 1971, Texas United
Insurance Company in 1972, The Insurance Company of Iowa in 1973,
and Kansas Fire and Casualty Company in late 1977), the purchase
for cash of other insurance companies (Home and Automobile
Insurance Company in 1971, Kerkling Reinsurance Corporation, now
named Central Fire and Casualty Company, in 1976, and Cypress
Insurance Company at yearend 1977), and finally through the
marketing of additional products, most significantly reinsurance,
within the National Indemnity Company corporate structure.
In aggregate, the insurance business has worked out very
well. But it hasn’t been a one-way street. Some major mistakes
have been made during the decade, both in products and personnel.
We experienced significant problems from (1) a surety operation
initiated in 1969, (2) the 1973 expansion of Home and
Automobile’s urban auto marketing into the Miami, Florida area,
(3) a still unresolved aviation “fronting” arrangement, and (4)
our Worker’s Compensation operation in California, which we
believe retains an interesting potential upon completion of a
reorganization now in progress. It is comforting to be in a
business where some mistakes can be made and yet a quite
satisfactory overall performance can be achieved. In a sense,
this is the opposite case from our textile business where even
very good management probably can average only modest results.
One of the lessons your management has learned - and,
unfortunately, sometimes re-learned - is the importance of being
in businesses where tailwinds prevail rather than headwinds.
In 1977 the winds in insurance underwriting were squarely
behind us. Very large rate increases were effected throughout
the industry in 1976 to offset the disastrous underwriting
results of 1974 and 1975. But, because insurance policies
typically are written for one-year periods, with pricing mistakes
capable of correction only upon renewal, it was 1977 before the
full impact was felt upon earnings of those earlier rate
increases.
The pendulum now is beginning to swing the other way. We
estimate that costs involved in the insurance areas in which we
operate rise at close to 1% per month. This is due to continuous
monetary inflation affecting the cost of repairing humans and
property, as well as “social inflation”, a broadening definition
by society and juries of what is covered by insurance policies.
Unless rates rise at a comparable 1% per month, underwriting
profits must shrink. Recently the pace of rate increases has
slowed dramatically, and it is our expectation that underwriting
margins generally will be declining by the second half of the
year.
We must again give credit to Phil Liesche, greatly assisted
by Roland Miller in Underwriting and Bill Lyons in Claims, for an
extraordinary underwriting achievement in National Indemnity’s
traditional auto and general liability business during 1977.
Large volume gains have been accompanied by excellent
underwriting margins following contraction or withdrawal by many
competitors in the wake of the 1974-75 crisis period. These
conditions will reverse before long. In the meantime, National
Indemnity’s underwriting profitability has increased dramatically
and, in addition, large sums have been made available for
investment. As markets loosen and rates become inadequate, we
again will face the challenge of philosophically accepting
reduced volume. Unusual managerial discipline will be required,
as it runs counter to normal institutional behavior to let the
other fellow take away business - even at foolish prices.
Our reinsurance department, managed by George Young,
improved its underwriting performance during 1977. Although the
combined ratio (see definition on page 12) of 107.1 was
unsatisfactory, its trend was downward throughout the year. In
addition, reinsurance generates unusually high funds for
investment as a percentage of premium volume.
At Home and Auto, John Seward continued to make progress on
all fronts. John was a battlefield promotion several years ago
when Home and Auto’s underwriting was awash in red ink and the
company faced possible extinction. Under his management it
currently is sound, profitable, and growing.
John Ringwalt’s homestate operation now consists of five
companies, with Kansas Fire and Casualty Company becoming
operational late in 1977 under the direction of Floyd Taylor.
The homestate companies had net premium volume of $23 million, up
from $5.5 million just three years ago. All four companies that
operated throughout the year achieved combined ratios below 100,
with Cornhusker Casualty Company, at 93.8, the leader. In
addition to actively supervising the other four homestate
operations, John Ringwalt manages the operations of Cornhusker
which has recorded combined ratios below 100 in six of its seven
full years of existence and, from a standing start in 1970, has
grown to be one of the leading insurance companies operating in
Nebraska utilizing the conventional independent agency system.
Lakeland Fire and Casualty Company, managed by Jim Stodolka, was
the winner of the Chairman’s Cup in 1977 for achieving the lowest
loss ratio among the homestate companies. All in all, the
homestate operation continues to make excellent progress.
The newest addition to our insurance group is Cypress
Insurance Company of South Pasadena, California. This Worker’s
Compensation insurer was purchased for cash in the final days of
1977 and, therefore, its approximate $12.5 million of volume for
that year was not included in our results. Cypress and National
Indemnity’s present California Worker’s Compensation operation
will not be combined, but will operate independently utilizing
somewhat different marketing strategies. Milt Thornton,
President of Cypress since 1968, runs a first-class operation for
policyholders, agents, employees and owners alike. We look
forward to working with him.
Insurance companies offer standardized policies which can be
copied by anyone. Their only products are promises. It is not
difficult to be licensed, and rates are an open book. There are
no important advantages from trademarks, patents, location,
corporate longevity, raw material sources, etc., and very little
consumer differentiation to produce insulation from competition.
It is commonplace, in corporate annual reports, to stress the
difference that people make. Sometimes this is true and
sometimes it isn’t. But there is no question that the nature of
the insurance business magnifies the effect which individual
managers have on company performance. We are very fortunate to
have the group of managers that are associated with us.
Insurance Investments
During the past two years insurance investments at cost
(excluding the investment in our affiliate, Blue Chip Stamps)
have grown from $134.6 million to $252.8 million. Growth in
insurance reserves, produced by our large gain in premium volume,
plus retained earnings, have accounted for this increase in
marketable securities. In turn, net investment income of the
Insurance Group has improved from $8.4 million pre-tax in 1975 to
$12.3 million pre-tax in 1977.
In addition to this income from dividends and interest, we
realized capital gains of $6.9 million before tax, about one-
quarter from bonds and the balance from stocks. Our unrealized
gain in stocks at yearend 1977 was approximately $74 million but
this figure, like any other figure of a single date (we had an
unrealized loss of $17 million at the end of 1974), should not be
taken too seriously. Most of our large stock positions are going
to be held for many years and the scorecard on our investment
decisions will be provided by business results over that period,
and not by prices on any given day. Just as it would be foolish
to focus unduly on short-term prospects when acquiring an entire
company, we think it equally unsound to become mesmerized by
prospective near term earnings or recent trends in earnings when
purchasing small pieces of a company; i.e., marketable common
stocks.
A little digression illustrating this point may be
interesting. Berkshire Fine Spinning Associates and Hathaway
Manufacturing were merged in 1955 to form Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
In 1948, on a pro forma combined basis, they had earnings after
tax of almost $18 million and employed 10,000 people at a dozen
large mills throughout New England. In the business world of
that period they were an economic powerhouse. For example, in
that same year earnings of IBM were $28 million (now $2.7
billion), Safeway Stores, $10 million, Minnesota Mining, $13
million, and Time, Inc., $9 million. But, in the decade
following the 1955 merger aggregate sales of $595 million
produced an aggregate loss for Berkshire Hathaway of $10 million.
By 1964 the operation had been reduced to two mills and net worth
had shrunk to $22 million, from $53 million at the time of the
merger. So much for single year snapshots as adequate portrayals
of a business.
Equity holdings of our insurance companies with a market
value of over $5 million on December 31, 1977 were as follows:
No. of Shares Company Cost Market
------------- ------- -------- --------
(000’s omitted)
220,000 Capital Cities Communications, Inc. ..... $ 10,909 $ 13,228
1,986,953 Government Employees Insurance
Company Convertible Preferred ........ 19,417 33,033
1,294,308 Government Employees Insurance
Company Common Stock ................. 4,116 10,516
592,650 The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. 4,531 17,187
324,580 Kaiser Aluminum& Chemical Corporation ... 11,218 9,981
1,305,800 Kaiser Industries, Inc. ................. 778 6,039
226,900 Knight-Ridder Newspapers, Inc. .......... 7,534 8,736
170,800 Ogilvy & Mather International, Inc. ..... 2,762 6,960
934,300 The Washington Post Company Class B ..... 10,628 33,401
-------- --------
Total ................................... $ 71,893 $139,081
All Other Holdings ...................... 34,996 41,992
-------- --------
Total Equities .......................... $106,889 $181,073
======== ========
We select our marketable equity securities in much the same
way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety.
We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2)
with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and
competent people, and (4) available at a very attractive price.
We ordinarily make no attempt to buy equities for anticipated
favorable stock price behavior in the short term. In fact, if
their business experience continues to satisfy us, we welcome
lower market prices of stocks we own as an opportunity to acquire
even more of a good thing at a better price.
Our experience has been that pro-rata portions of truly
outstanding businesses sometimes sell in the securities markets
at very large discounts from the prices they would command in
negotiated transactions involving entire companies.
Consequently, bargains in business ownership, which simply are
not available directly through corporate acquisition, can be
obtained indirectly through stock ownership. When prices are
appropriate, we are willing to take very large positions in
selected companies, not with any intention of taking control and
not foreseeing sell-out or merger, but with the expectation that
excellent business results by corporations will translate over
the long term into correspondingly excellent market value and
dividend results for owners, minority as well as majority.
Such investments initially may have negligible impact on our
operating earnings. For example, we invested $10.9 million in
Capital Cities Communications during 1977. Earnings attributable
to the shares we purchased totaled about $1.3 million last year.
But only the cash dividend, which currently provides $40,000
annually, is reflected in our operating earnings figure.
Capital Cities possesses both extraordinary properties and
extraordinary management. And these management skills extend
equally to operations and employment of corporate capital. To
purchase, directly, properties such as Capital Cities owns would
cost in the area of twice our cost of purchase via the stock
market, and direct ownership would offer no important advantages
to us. While control would give us the opportunity - and the
responsibility - to manage operations and corporate resources, we
would not be able to provide management in either of those
respects equal to that now in place. In effect, we can obtain a
better management result through non-control than control. This
is an unorthodox view, but one we believe to be sound.
Banking
In 1977 the Illinois National Bank continued to achieve a
rate of earnings on assets about three times that of most large
banks. As usual, this record was achieved while the bank paid
maximum rates to savers and maintained an asset position
combining low risk and exceptional liquidity. Gene Abegg formed
the bank in 1931 with $250,000. In its first full year of
operation, earnings amounted to $8,782. Since that time, no new
capital has been contributed to the bank; on the contrary, since
our purchase in 1969, dividends of $20 million have been paid.
Earnings in 1977 amounted to $3.6 million, more than achieved by
many banks two or three times its size.
Late last year Gene, now 80 and still running a banking
operation without peer, asked that a successor be brought in.
Accordingly, Peter Jeffrey, formerly President and Chief
Executive Officer of American National Bank of Omaha, has joined
the Illinois National Bank effective March 1st as President and
Chief Executive Officer.
Gene continues in good health as Chairman. We expect a
continued successful operation at Rockford’s leading bank.
Blue Chip Stamps
We again increased our equity interest in Blue Chip Stamps,
and owned approximately 36 1/2% at the end of 1977. Blue Chip
had a fine year, earning approximately $12.9 million from
operations and, in addition, had realized securities gains of
$4.1 million.
Both Wesco Financial Corp., an 80% owned subsidiary of Blue
Chip Stamps, managed by Louis Vincenti, and See’s Candies, a 99%
owned subsidiary, managed by Chuck Huggins, made good progress in
1977. Since See’s was purchased by Blue Chip Stamps at the
beginning of 1972, pre-tax operating earnings have grown from
$4.2 million to $12.6 million with little additional capital
investment. See’s achieved this record while operating in an
industry experiencing practically no unit growth. Shareholders
of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. may obtain the annual report of Blue
Chip Stamps by requesting it from Mr. Robert H. Bird, Blue Chip
Stamps, 5801 South Eastern Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90040.
Warren E. Buffett, Chairman
March 14,1978
完整中文翻译
下列翻译按官方原文的 40 个有序段落逐段核对,所有数字与官方原文完全对应。翻译为编辑方工作成果,仅供参考。
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)股东:
1977 年营业利润为 $21,904,000,合每股 $22.54,略好于一年前的预期。在这部分利润中,每股 $1.43 来自蓝筹邮票公司(Blue Chip Stamps)已实现的巨额资本利得;这部分利得按我们在该公司所占的股权比例计入我们的营业利润数字。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司或其保险子公司直接实现的资本利得或损失,不计入我们对营业利润的计算。尽管不应过分看重任何单一年度的数字,但长期而言,累计资本利得或损失的记录显然具有相当重要的意义。
纺织业务远低于预期;伊利诺伊国民银行(Illinois National Bank)的业绩,以及可归入我们在蓝筹邮票公司股权所对应的营业利润,大体与预期相符。然而,由菲利普·利切(Phil Liesche)在国民赔偿公司(National Indemnity Company)的管理团队再次带来的真正杰出业绩引领,保险业务的运营甚至超出了我们乐观的预期。
多数公司将“创纪录”利润定义为每股收益创出新高。由于企业通常会逐年向其权益基础中追加资本,因此对于一项使权益资本增加 10% 而每股收益仅增加 5% 的管理层业绩,我们认为这没什么特别值得称道之处。毕竟,即便是一个完全静止的储蓄账户,凭借复利作用,每年也会产生稳步上升的利息收益。
除了一些特殊情形(例如,具有异常资产负债率的公司,或者账面价值未按现实资产负债表价值入账的重要资产的公司)之外,我们认为,更合适的管理层经济业绩衡量标准是权益资本的回报率。1977 年,我们以年初权益资本计算的营业利润达到 19%,略高于去年,也高于我们自己的长期平均水平以及美国工业的整体水平。但是,尽管我们的每股营业利润较前一年增长了 37%,我们的年初资本却增长了 24%,这使得每股收益的增幅远不如初看上去那般令人瞩目。
我们预计在来年很难再现 1977 年的回报率水平。年初权益资本较一年前上升了 23%,而且我们预计保险承保利润率的趋势将在年底之前很久就出现下行。尽管如此,我们仍预计这将是相当不错的一年;在我们目前所做预估(须服从关于预测固有弱点的惯常告诫)之下,营业利润将在 1978 年期间在每股基础上略有改善。
纺织业务
1977 年纺织业务再度度过了一个非常糟糕的年份。我们在过去两年中每年都错误地预测会有更好的业绩。这或许能说明一些关于我们预测能力、纺织行业的本质,或者两者皆是的问题。尽管我们付出了巨大的努力,营销和制造方面的问题仍然持续存在。在营销领域所经历的许多困难,主要归因于行业状况,但其中一些问题是我们自己造成的。
少数股东对继续留在纺织业务中的明智性提出了质疑,因为从长期来看,纺织业务不太可能产生与许多其他业务相比拟的资本回报。我们继续留下的理由有几条:(1) 我们位于新贝德福德(New Bedford)和曼彻斯特(Manchester)的工厂是各自城镇中最大的雇主之一,所使用的劳动力平均年龄偏高,且具备相对难以转用的技能。我们的工人和工会在与管理层合作以建立一种可能使我们维持可持续运营的成本结构和产品组合方面,表现出非同寻常的理解与努力。(2) 管理层在处理我们的纺织问题时,态度也一直是积极且坦诚的。特别是自 1965 年公司控制权发生变更以来,肯·蔡斯(Ken Chace)的努力从纺织部门产生了为收购和扩张我们盈利的保险业务所需的资本。(3) 凭借在制造和营销配置方面的努力和一些想象力,未来在纺织部门至少实现 modest(适度)的利润似乎是合理的。
保险承保
我们的保险业务在 1977 年继续显著增长。早在 1967 年初,我们通过以约 $8.6 million 收购国民赔偿公司和国民火灾与海上保险公司(National Fire and Marine Insurance Company,姐妹公司)进入了这个行业。那一年,它们的保费规模为 $22 million。1977 年,我们的保险保费总规模为 $151 million。为达成这些增长中的任何一项,伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司均未额外发行股票。
相反,这接近 600% 的增长是通过以下途径实现的:国民赔偿公司传统责任领域的大幅增长;新公司的设立(1970 年的 Cornhusker Casualty Company,1971 年的 Lakeland Fire and Casualty Company,1972 年的 Texas United Insurance Company,1973 年的 The Insurance Company of Iowa,以及 1977 年晚些时候的 Kansas Fire and Casualty Company);以现金收购其他保险公司(1971 年的 Home and Automobile Insurance Company,1976 年的 Kerkling Reinsurance Corporation——现已更名为 Central Fire and Casualty Company——以及 1977 年底的 Cypress Insurance Company);最后是通过在国民赔偿公司架构内营销附加产品,其中最重要的是再保险。
总体来看,保险业务的结果非常令人满意。但这并非一条坦途。在这十年间,我们在产品和人员方面都犯过一些重大错误。我们曾遭遇以下重大问题:(1) 1969 年启动的一项担保业务;(2) 1973 年将 Home and Automobile 的城市汽车营销扩展到佛罗里达州迈阿密地区;(3) 一项至今仍未解决的航空“fronting(出单)”安排;以及 (4) 我们在加利福尼亚州的劳工伤害险(Worker's Compensation)业务——我们相信,在一项正在进行的重组完成之后,该业务仍保留着令人感兴趣的发展潜力。身处一个即便犯了些错误仍能取得相当令人满意的整体业绩的行业,这令人欣慰。在某种意义上,这正好与我们纺织业务的情况相反——在纺织业,即便非常优秀的管理层平均也只能取得 modest(适度)的业绩。贵公司管理层所学到的教训之一(不幸的是,有时还要反复学习),就是身处顺风而非逆风的行业的重要性。
1977 年,保险承保的风正紧紧地顺着我们的方向吹。整个行业在 1976 年实施了非常大幅的费率上调,以抵消 1974 年和 1975 年灾难性的承保结果。但是,由于保险保单通常以一年期为限签署,定价错误只能在续保时才能纠正,所以直到 1977 年,先前那些费率上调对利润的全部影响才得以充分体现。
钟摆现在正开始向另一方向摆动。我们估计,在我们所经营的保险领域中,相关成本以接近每月 1% 的速度上升。这是由于持续的货币通胀影响了修复人身和财产的成本,以及“社会性通胀”——社会和陪审团对保险保单所覆盖范围不断拓宽的定义。除非费率以可比的每月 1% 速度上升,否则承保利润必然收缩。近来费率上升的步伐已显著放缓,我们预计承保利润率通常会在下半年出现下滑。
我们必须再次将功劳归于菲利普·利切(Phil Liesche),并由承保部门的 Roland Miller 和理赔部门的 Bill Lyons 大力协助,感谢他们在 1977 年间在国民赔偿公司传统的汽车和一般责任业务中所取得的非凡承保业绩。在 1974-75 年危机时期之后,许多竞争对手收缩或退出市场,伴随而来的是承保利润率出色的大幅销量增长。这些状况不久之后就会逆转。在此期间,国民赔偿公司的承保盈利能力大幅提升,此外还腾出了大笔可用于投资的资金。当市场松动、费率变得不足时,我们将再次面临在哲学层面接受业务量下降的挑战。届时将需要非同寻常的管理纪律,因为放任别人以愚蠢的价格把业务抢走——这有悖于正常的机构行为。
由 George Young 管理的再保险部门在 1977 年间改善了其承保业绩。虽然 107.1 的综合比率(combined ratio,定义见第 12 页)并不令人满意,但其全年趋势在向下走。此外,再保险以相对于保费规模的百分比衡量,会产生异常高额的可投资资金。
在 Home and Auto,John Seward 继续在各个战线上取得进展。几年前,当 Home and Auto 的承保深陷赤字、公司面临可能的灭顶之灾时,John 是临危受命的。在他的管理下,公司目前经营稳健、盈利且在增长。
John Ringwalt 主导的 homestate(本州)业务目前由五家公司组成,其中 Kansas Fire and Casualty Company 在 Floyd Taylor 的领导下于 1977 年晚些时候开始运营。homestate 公司的净保费规模为 $23 million,较三年前的 $5.5 million 上升。全年运营的四家公司全部实现了低于 100 的综合比率,其中 Cornhusker Casualty Company 以 93.8 居首。除积极监督其他四家 homestate 业务之外,John Ringwalt 还亲自管理 Cornhusker 的运营——该公司在其完整存续的七年中有六年录得低于 100 的综合比率,并且自 1970 年从零起步以来,已成长为内布拉斯加州采用传统独立代理体系的领先保险公司之一。由 Jim Stodolka 管理的 Lakeland Fire and Casualty Company 因在 homestate 公司中实现最低损失比率,荣获 1977 年的“董事长杯(Chairman's Cup)”。总体而言,homestate 业务持续取得卓越的进展。
我们保险集团最新加入的成员是位于加利福尼亚州南帕萨迪纳(South Pasadena, California)的 Cypress Insurance Company。这家劳工伤害保险(Worker's Compensation)公司是在 1977 年的最后几天以现金收购的,因此其当年约 $12.5 million 的规模并未计入我们的业绩。Cypress 与国民赔偿公司现有的加利福尼亚劳工伤害险业务将不会合并,而是会独立运营,采用略有不同的营销战略。自 1968 年起一直担任 Cypress 总裁的 Milt Thornton,为保单持有人、代理人、员工和所有者经营着一流的运营。我们期待与他合作。
保险公司提供的标准化保单任何人都可以照搬。它们唯一的产品就是承诺。取得执照并不困难,费率也是公开的信息。商标、专利、地理位置、公司年限、原材料来源等方面都不构成重要优势,能产生免于竞争之屏障的消费者差异化也非常之少。在公司年报中强调“人”的作用是一种惯例。这有时是真的,有时不是。但毫无疑问,保险业务的本质会放大个别管理者对公司业绩的影响。我们非常幸运能拥有与我们合作的管理者团队。
保险投资
过去两年间,按成本计价的保险投资(不含对我们关联公司蓝筹邮票的投资)已从 $134.6 million 增长到 $252.8 million。保险准备金的增长(由保费规模的大幅上升所带来)加上留存收益,构成了这部分有价证券增长的原因。相应地,保险集团(Insurance Group)的净投资收益已从 1975 年的税前 $8.4 million 提升至 1977 年的税前 $12.3 million。
除了来自股息和利息的这项收入之外,我们还实现了税前 $6.9 million 的资本利得,其中约四分之一来自债券,其余来自股票。我们在 1977 年底股票持仓的未实现盈利约为 $74 million,但这个数字,如同任何单一时点的数字一样(我们在 1974 年底曾有 $17 million 的未实现亏损),不应被过分看重。我们大多数大型股票持仓都打算持有许多年,而我们投资决策的成绩单将由该期间内的经营结果提供,而不是由任何某一天的报价提供。正如在整体收购一家公司时过分关注其短期前景是愚蠢的一样,我们认为,在购买一家公司的一小部分(即可流通的普通股)时,被预期近期盈利或近期盈利趋势所迷惑同样是不可取的。
一个用以说明此点的小小题外话或许会很有趣。Berkshire Fine Spinning Associates 与 Hathaway Manufacturing 于 1955 年合并,组成伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)。在 1948 年,按备考合并口径,它们拥有近 $18 million 的税后利润,并在整个新英格兰地区的十几家大型工厂中雇佣了 10,000 人。在当时的商业世界中,它们是一座经济重镇。例如,在同一年,IBM 的利润为 $28 million(现为 $2.7 billion),Safeway Stores 为 $10 million,Minnesota Mining 为 $13 million,Time, Inc. 为 $9 million。但是,在 1955 年合并之后的十年里,合计 $595 million 的销售额却给伯克希尔·哈撒韦带来了合计 $10 million 的亏损。到 1964 年,运营已缩减至两家工厂,净资产从合并时的 $53 million 缩水至 $22 million。可见,把单一年度的快照视作对一家企业的充分写照,不过如此。
我们保险公司截至 1977 年十二月 31 日市值超过 $5 million 的股权持仓如下:
股数(No. of Shares) 公司 成本 市值
------------- ------- -------- --------
(单位:千美元,000's omitted)
220,000 Capital Cities Communications, Inc. ..... $ 10,909 $ 13,228
1,986,953 Government Employees Insurance
Company Convertible Preferred ........ 19,417 33,033
1,294,308 Government Employees Insurance
Company Common Stock ................. 4,116 10,516
592,650 The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. 4,531 17,187
324,580 Kaiser Aluminum & Chemical Corporation ... 11,218 9,981
1,305,800 Kaiser Industries, Inc. ................. 778 6,039
226,900 Knight-Ridder Newspapers, Inc. .......... 7,534 8,736
170,800 Ogilvy & Mather International, Inc. ..... 2,762 6,960
934,300 The Washington Post Company Class B ..... 10,628 33,401
-------- --------
合计 Total ................................... $ 71,893 $139,081
其他全部持仓 All Other Holdings .............. 34,996 41,992
-------- --------
权益合计 Total Equities .......................... $106,889 $181,073
======== ========我们挑选可流通的股权证券时,所采用的方式与我们评估一家企业是否值得整体收购时所采用的方式大体相同。我们希望该企业:(1) 是我们能理解的;(2) 拥有良好的长期前景;(3) 由诚实且能干的人经营;(4) 能以非常有吸引力的价格获得。我们通常不会试图为短期内预期的股价良好表现而买入股权。事实上,如果它们的企业经验持续令我们满意,我们会欢迎我们所持股票的市场价格下跌,将其视为以更优价格获取更多好东西的机会。
我们的经验是,真正杰出的企业按比例计的份额,有时会在证券市场上以远低于其在涉及整家公司的议价交易中所能要到的价格折价出售。因此,通过企业收购无法直接获得的“企业所有权的便宜货”,可以通过股票所有权间接获得。当价格合适时,我们愿意在精选的公司中占据非常大的头寸,并不带任何取得控制权的意图,也不预见抛售或合并,而是预期企业的卓越经营成果长期而言将转化为所有者(无论是少数股东还是多数股东)相应卓越的市场价值和股息结果。
这类投资在初期对我们的营业利润影响可能微乎其微。例如,我们在 1977 年间对 Capital Cities Communications 投入了 $10.9 million。归属于我们所购股份的利润去年合计约为 $1.3 million。但只有现金股息(目前每年提供 $40,000)会反映在我们的营业利润数字中。
Capital Cities 既拥有非凡的资产,也拥有非凡的管理层。而且这些管理技能在运营和运用公司资本两方面同样出色。直接购买诸如 Capital Cities 所拥有的资产,所需成本大约是我们通过股票市场购买成本的两倍,而且直接所有权对我们而言不会带来任何重要优势。尽管控制权会赋予我们管理运营和企业资源的机会与责任,但我们在这两方面都无法提供与现有管理层水平相当的管理。事实上,我们可以通过“非控制”获得比“控制”更好的管理结果。这是一种非正统的观点,但我们认为它是站得住脚的。
银行业务
1977 年,伊利诺伊国民银行(Illinois National Bank)继续取得了约为大多数大型银行三倍的资产回报率。一如既往,这一纪录是在银行向储户支付最高利率、并维持兼具低风险与异常流动性的资产结构的同时取得的。Gene Abegg 于 1931 年以 $250,000 创立了这家银行。在其首个完整运营年度,利润为 $8,782。自那时起,银行再无任何新资本注入;相反,自我们 1969 年收购以来,已派发股息 $20 million。1977 年的利润达到 $3.6 million,超过了规模为其两到三倍的许多银行。
去年晚些时候,已年届 80、仍经营着一家举世无双的银行业务的 Gene,请求引入一位继任者。因此,原任奥马哈美国国民银行(American National Bank of Omaha)总裁兼首席执行官的 Peter Jeffrey,已于 March 1st 加入伊利诺伊国民银行,出任总裁兼首席执行官。
Gene 以董事长身份继续健康地在任。我们期待这家罗克福德(Rockford)的龙头银行继续取得成功的运营。
蓝筹邮票与签署
蓝筹邮票(Blue Chip Stamps)
我们再次增持了蓝筹邮票的股权,截至 1977 年底持有约 36 1/2%。蓝筹邮票度过了一个不错的年份,从运营中获得约 $12.9 million 利润,此外还实现了 $4.1 million 的证券处置收益。
由 Louis Vincenti 管理的 Wesco Financial Corp.(蓝筹邮票持股 80% 的子公司)和由 Chuck Huggins 管理的 See's Candies(持股 99% 的子公司)在 1977 年均取得了良好进展。自 See's 于 1972 年初被蓝筹邮票收购以来,其税前营业利润在几乎未追加资本投资的情况下,从 $4.2 million 增长到了 $12.6 million。See's 是在一个几乎没有任何单位增长的行业里取得这一纪录的。伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股东可致函蓝筹邮票的 Robert H. Bird 先生索取蓝筹邮票的年报,地址:Blue Chip Stamps, 5801 South Eastern Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90040。
Warren E. Buffett, Chairman(董事长)
日期:March 14,1978
老董解读初稿
以下解读为编辑方主观分析,已明确标注为「初稿」。其中事实陈述与推断性表述在原文中均有显式区分。解读并非巴菲特本人的文字,也不构成投资建议。
核心论点
我把这封信读作巴菲特对“何为好生意、何为好管理、何为好资本配置”的早期系统陈述。纺织业务被反复证明是糟糕的资本配置;保险业务即便犯了错仍能赚得令人满意的回报;少数股权持股被严肃地当作企业所有权来对待;管理层被要求诚实坦率、敢于认错。这四条线索在 1977 年的信中第一次同时清晰浮现,我倾向于把它们视作日后伯克希尔整套方法论的雏形。
权益回报率 vs. 每股收益的“光学错觉”
巴菲特在信中明确说,他认为更合适的管理层经济业绩衡量标准是“return on equity capital”(权益资本回报率),而不是每股收益是否创新高。我把它理解为对“创纪录利润”这一表述的解构:多数公司把每股收益新高包装成好消息,但这只是因为权益资本基数每年都在变大。
信中给出 1977 年的具体数字:营业利润/年初权益资本为 19%,每股营业利润较前一年增长 37%,但年初资本却增长了 24%。我读到这一对比时,第一反应是“37% 的每股增长其实没那么亮眼”——因为它站在一个比去年膨胀了四分之一的资本基础之上。
我把这一点与他自己所举的“完全静止的储蓄账户也会因复利而每年产生持续上升的利息收益”对起来看:如果管理层只是把利润留存下来而不创造超额回报,每股收益自然会上涨,但这与经营能力无关。这是事实层面的陈述;我推断其含义是——只有当回报率超过资本成本时,留存利润才是合理的。
保险承保的周期性,以及浮存金
信中陈述:1976 年全行业大幅上调费率以抵消 1974、1975 两年灾难性的承保结果;由于保单以一年为期,定价错误只能在续保时纠正,所以直到 1977 年才在利润上充分反映。这是事实层面,不带解释。
我把它理解为典型的财产险承保周期(underwriting cycle)的描述:一次严重的行业亏损触发费率上调,上调在一年期保单上陆续生效,于是费率上行期与利润释放期之间出现时滞。然后他接着指出“钟摆现在正开始向另一方向摆动”——成本以每月约 1% 的速度上升,而费率上调的步伐已显著放缓。
关于浮存金(float),信中并没有使用这个词,但它陈述了相关事实:再保险“以相对于保费规模的百分比衡量,会产生异常高额的可投资资金”,并指出承保盈利能力的提升使“大笔资金可用于投资”。我倾向于认为,这正是后来广为人知的“浮存金”概念的雏形——保费先收进来、理赔后付出去,中间的差额可用于投资。我把这视作保险业务真正的吸引力所在,而非单纯的承保利润。
纺织业务的经济学与资本配置
信中坦率陈述:纺织业务在 1977 年再次“非常糟糕”,并且管理层“在过去两年中每年都错误地预测会有更好的业绩”。巴菲特明确承认了预测错误,并把这归因于“我们的预测能力、纺织行业的本质,或者两者皆是”。这是事实陈述加上自我归因。
他还陈述:少数股东质疑“继续留在纺织业务”是否明智,因为纺织业务长期来看不太可能产生与许多其他业务相比拟的资本回报。给出三条理由:劳动力的安置问题(新贝德福德和曼彻斯特的工厂是各自城镇最大雇主之一)、Ken Chace 自 1965 年控制权变更以来从纺织部门产生资本以资助保险业务的扩张、以及未来在制造和营销配置上的努力可能带来的 modest 利润。
我把第三条理由里的一句话读作整个资本配置论点的钥匙——纺织部门曾“产生了收购和扩张我们盈利的保险业务所需的资本”。我倾向于理解为:纺织业务在历史上扮演了“提款机”的角色,把现金流转换成了回报高得多的保险业务;这也是为什么明知纺织业务回报不佳,仍暂未退出的合理化解释。结合他对“顺风业务”与“逆风业务”的明确对比,我把这视作日后“把资本从低回报业务迁移到高回报业务”这一原则的早期现场版。
少数股权持股即企业所有权
信中陈述:选股的方式“与我们评估一家企业是否值得整体收购时所采用的方式大体相同”,希望企业“能理解、长期前景好、由诚实能干的人经营、价格非常有吸引力”。同时陈述:“如果它们的企业经验持续令我们满意,我们会欢迎我们所持股票的市场价格下跌”。
我把它理解为买股就是买企业的原则的明确化:选股标准与整体收购一致,并不因为只买少数股权就降低标准。这是一个非常强的承诺,因为它意味着巴菲特不在乎报价的短期波动——甚至在持仓基本面仍然良好时,他欢迎价格下跌以便增持。
信中还陈述:通过股票市场获得企业所有权的便宜货,是直接企业收购无法获得的——并指出对 Capital Cities 的投资即使经营利润归我们所购股份的部分约 $1.3 million,也只有 $40,000 的现金股息会反映在营业利润里。我读到这一段时倾向于理解为:他在为“按权益法应享有的利润远大于记入报表的现金股息”这一光学差异作辩护——经营结果会长期转化为对应的市场价值,而不是单一年度的报表数字。
管理层的坦率与敢于认错
信中至少在三处明确承认问题:纺织业务“在过去两年中每年都错误地预测会有更好的业绩”、保险业务“在这十年间,我们在产品和人员方面都犯过一些重大错误”、并列举了四项具体问题(1969 年的担保业务、1973 年 Home and Automobile 在迈阿密的扩张、未解决的航空 fronting 安排、加州劳工伤害险业务)。这是事实陈述。
我把它理解为巴菲特对管理层坦率的明示标准:年报不是营销材料,应当坦率承认错误、列出失败案例、并解释当前状况。他甚至说“贵公司管理层所学到的教训之一(不幸的是,有时还要反复学习)”,暗示同样的错误会被重复——这是一种非常少见的自我贬抑。
我倾向于把这种坦率读作一种信任建立机制:当管理层主动承认错误时,投资者反而更愿意相信他们所报告的好消息。结合他强调保险业务的本质会“放大个别管理者对公司业绩的影响”,我把这种认错文化和“选对人”的强调放在一起理解为——他更愿意把信任押在具体的人身上,而不是抽象的系统或流程上。这只是我对信中语气的解读,并非信中明确陈述的结论。
结语
我把整封信读作一份关于“资本配置哲学”的早期纲领。1977 年的巴菲特已经清楚地知道:纺织业务不是好生意,但仍在用它为保险业务供血;保险业务的好运来自周期性费率上行,但他已经预警下一轮下行;选股就是选企业,少数股东和多数股东在企业结果面前应当平权;管理层应当坦率,包括坦率地承认自己反复犯错。我并不认为他当时已经把所有这些原则系统化——那要等到后来的信件——但雏形已经齐备。如果你只读一封 1970 年代的伯克希尔股东信来理解“伯克希尔之道”,我倾向于推荐这一封。