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• 7月的大跌，4月就写好了剧本2026-07-184月预判的三条线——M1拐头、最后一涨、天量信号——逐条对账。成长价值比触及2.5历史极值后的快速回撤，不是意外，是剧本。
• A股最后一涨2026-04-15M1 增速回升解释了 A 股上一段行情，也提示这轮上涨更像流动性惯性下的最后一冲。

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  Ming-Chi Kuo@mingchikuo7/18 00:47Breaking down TSMC's glass core substrate slide On June 11, at JPCA Show 2026 in Japan, TSMC gave a roughly 40-slide presentation titled "Advanced Packaging Technology Essential to the Evolution of AI" (AIの進化に不可欠な先端パッケージング技術). One slide from the deck, titled "Glass Substrate Development for CoWoS," has since leaked online and widespread attention. Here's a closer read of that slide (see attached image). I'll skip the technical background that is already widely available. One thing to flag: the "COP" on the slide does not stand for Chip-on-Package. It means Coplanarity. ▌ Key conclusions: 1. TSMC has officially announced a partnership with Ibiden and Innolux to develop a glass core substrate. The structure is a three-layer design, a glass core sandwiched between two ABF build-up layers. This is the "oS" in CoPoS. 2. The market underestimates how important the glass core substrate is. It's a must-have capability for TSMC. In other words, within CoPoS the "oS" matters more than the "CoP", which is also why, when it was tested, it was paired with the existing CoW rather than with CoP. 3. The glass core substrate costs several times more per unit than existing ABF substrates. The glass processed by Innolux is very expensive per unit and is the single most critical material. Besides Nvidia, two US-based customers have also expressed strong interest. ▌ Industry checks tied to this slide: 1. The glass core substrate shown on the slide is cut from a full-size 250×250mm one. The ABF build-up layers mainly use Ajinomoto's GL107, mixed with ABF-GCP, and were tested at 24–28 layers, which is the mainstream ABF spec for AI chips in 2027–2028. 2. The CoW used in TSMC's experiment is a test vehicle. It is sufficient to validate the most challenging mechanical-structure issues that arise when working with composite materials. Good results mean TSMC, Ibiden, and Innolux have together broken through the critical technical bottleneck. 3. Ibiden currently handles cutting the 250×250mm glass core substrate. When the 510×515mm format is used for pre-mass-production simulation in 2H27, if Ibiden still wants to reduce production complexity to protect its ultra-high gross margins, it may hand the cutting over to Innolux, which is more familiar with the properties of glass. ▌ The leaked slide shows the validation results of pairing CoW with the "oS" in CoPoS, i.e., the glass core substrate (labeled "glass-SBT" on the slide). This addresses the "Substrate mechanical and electrical Dilemma" raised on the previous slide, and it strongly underscores how important the "oS" is within CoPoS. 1. Within CoPoS, what CoP solves is production efficiency / cutting economics, which ties to cost and price. What the oS solves is warpage and durability, which determines whether the chip can be made at all, and whether it can work. 2. CoP and oS complement each other well when integrated, but looking out over the next few years their technical roles still differ. CoP is a very-nice-to-have optimization, and going without it simply means a more expensive chip. But the oS is a must-have. Without it, even being able to make a usable chip is in doubt. 3. Comparing their roles isn't about elevating oS at the expense of CoP. It comes down to the practical question of which technical piece customers are willing to pay for. Details below. ▌ The real gold here is the power integrity (PI) improvement shown on the slide. This matters a great deal to customers, and it means that once glass core substrate production stabilizes, TSMC's profitability and competitive edge should rise in tandem. 1. How it works: the glass core substrate is thin → the vertical conduction path through TGV (through-glass vias) is short → conduction-path resistance (R) and loop inductance (L) both drop → PI improves. 2. Why it matters to customers: better PI → more stable power delivery → frees up power headroom → room to integrate more transistors, or to push clock speeds higher → more AI compute. 3. For customers, production efficiency is TSMC's basic responsibility, so they won't pay extra for it. But gains in AI compute translate directly into the customer's own competitiveness and profit, so customers are willing to pay for that. This is why Nvidia is so positive on the glass core substrate. 4. For TSMC, the glass core substrate raises yield and lowers cost while also boosting both the compute and the selling price of AI chips. It's both a cost-cutting tool and a pricing lever, a plus for profitability and competitiveness alike. 5. Substrate cost currently accounts for a low single-digit percentage of an AI chip's BOM, while losses from packaging yield run roughly 5–10× the substrate cost. So even if the glass core substrate ends up costing several times more than today's, its share of the BOM stays low, and it can cut the losses from packaging yield. The high unit price is therefore not expected to dampen customers' willingness to adopt it. ▌ In the Q&A after the presentation, an audience member asked about TGV details for the glass core substrate. TSMC declined to answer on the spot, because TGV is the key technology behind the glass core substrate, and the core know-how currently sits with TSMC and Innolux. By contrast, when another attendee asked about integrating IVR, eDTC, and LSI, TSMC answered at length. ▌ According to industry checks, if all goes well, TSMC is aiming to start mass production of the glass core substrate in 4Q28–1Q29, to match the cadence of Nvidia's AI chip iterations. As a side note: the Ibiden earnings presentation slide that many people have been circulating lists the glass core substrate timeline as CY30. My read is this: Ibiden, which has always been conservative and cautious in public, has now formally put the glass core substrate on its roadmap, which further confirms the long-term trend for this technology. That said, some other details on Ibiden's slide don't fully line up with what's known in the market. For example, its reticle timeline is off from TSMC's public claims by about a generation, and the Rubin Ultra substrate size is clearly larger than the 90×90 it marked for CY26–27. It's a reminder to always cross-check across multiple sources when forecasting the future.
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  Serenity@aleabitoreddit7/18 12:39对于关注 $SKHY 相对 SK 海力士韩国股票溢价超过 25% 的人： 该 ADR 与本地股票将于 7 月 29 日实现可转换。 这为套利打开大门，很可能压缩 ADR 溢价。可能拉高韩国股票或施压美国股票。 目前美国 ADR 占 2.5%，因此额外 22.5% 可被转换。
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  Serenity@aleabitoreddit7/18 05:19谢谢，喜欢看评论！ 高盛将中际旭创的目标价上调至2581元人民币，较当前估值约有163.6%的上涨空间。 但更重要的是，其2026-2028年盈利预测大幅上调了65%/108%/119%，基于： - 硅光模块出货量大幅增加 - 横向扩展、纵向扩展、跨领域扩展的出货量 - 1.6T/3.2T推动混合平均售价及利润率提升 - AI资本支出增加 这对光学板块通常有重大传导意义，因为： 我倾向于将中际旭创视为类似$TSM（半导体资本支出）的指标，用以判断光子学领域的发展状况。 例如，硅光渗透率提高意味着连续波激光器（如$SIVE）的TAM更大，以及$SOI的SOI晶圆需求增加。未来代际的均价提升对其他光学标的也有正面影响。 除了这份报告，我另一点体会是中际旭创在12日的电话会议中表示，800G需求增长远超预期。 这反过来意味着像$AAOI到$LITE这样的标的在下一季报时会有更多需求。 简而言之：高盛在市场大幅回调期间给出了高盈利预测。 从基本面看，更广泛的光子学生态系统在财报季到来时应该会感到高兴。
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  Jukan@jukan057/18 17:55据大陆媒体报道，Kimi已告知投资者，其正在调整公司架构以筹备香港IPO，最快可能在六个月内完成。 https://t.co/bs6nbPxvyt
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  SemiAnalysis@SemiAnalysis_7/18 19:00一年前，三大巨头是OpenAI、Anthropic和谷歌。情况已经改变。 Moonshot的Kimi K3在所有综合基准测试中均高于Gemini，并且将在10天内开源。 新一期：K3揭示了前沿利润、模型规模以及谁还在游戏中。 00:11 Kimi K3是第三好的模型吗？ 04:04 为什么要延迟发布权重？ 05:30 2.8T参数与服务约束 06:48 前沿利润与3倍价格上涨 11:10 新架构，接下来是什么 14:09 开源能否追上闭源？ 19:51 专为中国加速器打造 22:57 框架即产品 28:49 我们仍处于早期

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