UBS LatAm Outlook: Brazil Poll Aggregator — The Gap Is Narrowing
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UBS's August 28 update to its Brazil presidential poll aggregator shows the race between Lula and Flavio narrowing. In the first-round voting-intention aggregate (valid votes), Lula stands at 44% (down 1 percentage point) versus 38% for Flavio (up 1 point), with other candidates at 18% (unchanged); the previous update, on August 24, showed 45%, 37%, and 18% respectively.
The runoff aggregate is now a near-tie: Lula 50.6% versus Flavio 49.4%, with Lula down from 51.4% previously and the valid-vote gap compressing from 2.8 to 1.2 percentage points. Lula's good/great government evaluation rose 1 point to 35%, still below the 40% historical re-election threshold, though UBS notes the indicator is currently less relevant. The update incorporates new polls from Datafolha, Veritá, Nexus, Gerp, Indexa, and PoderData, with Vox, Nexus, Real Time Big Data, and Atlas expected to publish in coming days. Risks cited include macro variables (GDP growth, inflation), economic slowdown, currency weakness, global events, and government policy changes. No ratings or target prices are given in this macro aggregation.