Goldman Sachs China Passenger Vehicle Chartbook, August 2026 — Strong Export Growth Persists While Domestic Retail Weakens; BYD Refreshed Models Bring Price Hikes
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China's passenger vehicle market diverged further in August: exports remained the standout while domestic demand softened. NEV retail fell 10% yoy (July: -3%), yet NEV retail penetration held at 65% (+10pp yoy); overall passenger vehicle retail dropped 24% and wholesale 5%, while industry exports surged 67% yoy, with NEV exports up 161%. Inventory months rose for both NEV and ICE vehicles. Pricing showed mixed signals: the industry recorded three NEV official price cuts and four increases, three of the hikes tied to BYD's refreshed models; NEV terminal discounts widened to 7.37% (July: 7.08%) while ICE discounts narrowed to 19.79%. Battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged Rmb151.4k/t (+94% yoy, -2% mom). New-model launches totaled 106 in the first eight months of 2026 versus 73 a year earlier. BYD's overseas sales accelerated to 189k units (+134% yoy, +5% mom) while domestic sales were 245k (-16% yoy, +6% mom); Goldman expects its domestic recovery to be underpinned by multiple flash-charging models. Ratings: Buy BYD (12-month DCF TP Rmb137/HK$134; WACC 10.8%, TGR 2.0%) and Buy Leapmotor (TP HK$55).
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