J.P. Morgan – Samsung Electronics (005930.KS): Q3 Headline In Line; Q3 Results to Mark the Earnings Bottom for the Next 12M; Overweight
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Key Views
- Memory margins exceeded conservative expectations on strong DRAM and NAND ASP growth.
- LSI/Foundry remains loss-making, weighed down by Taylor fab capex and labor costs.
- EPS is forecast to grow at a 35% CAGR over 2026–2028.
- The share price already reflects pessimism about a memory downcycle, trading below 4x P/E.
- Investor focus areas: evidence of improving HBM fundamentals, cash distribution plans, and the 2027/2028 memory supply-demand outlook.
Outlook
Q3 2026 should mark the earnings trough for the next 12 months. HBM ASP negotiations are the most direct driver of potential 2027 EPS upgrades, and the stock should re-rate as earnings recover through the memory upcycle.
Recommended Securities
Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) — Overweight; target price W400,000.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
