Nomura: China Healthcare — Release of the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Pharmaceutical Industry
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Nomura reviews the 18-page pharmaceutical 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30), released pre-market on September 18, 2026 by ten Chinese regulators including the MIIT, NDRC, NMPA and NHSA. The plan reaffirms pharma's status as an emerging pillar industry and sets quantitative targets: average R&D-to-sales above 10% for listed drugmakers (Nomura estimates roughly 8% currently), first-in-class drugs exceeding 25% of global share (low-teens today), innovative-drug sales growth above 20% (versus 8% industry-wide in the 14th Five-Year Plan), and more than five drugs with global sales above USD1bn (currently 2–3). Priority support spans siRNA/ASO, PROTAC/molecular glues, ADC/RDC/AOC, CAR-T including in-vivo and off-the-shelf formats, AI pathology, surgical robotics, AI molecular design and DNA data storage. Versus the 14th plan, innovation and globalization move centre-stage; Nomura sees the supportive policy as a solid foundation, with innovative-drug developers and CRDMOs benefiting as more stakeholders act and detailed rules emerge. Key flagged risks include GLP-1 competition and volume-based procurement for Innovent, geopolitical tension for the WuXi names, and a slower sac-TMT ramp for Kelun-Biotech. Rated Buy: Innovent (1801 HK, TP HKD123.17), Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK, TP HKD612.66), WuXi AppTec (2359 HK, TP HKD209.99; 603259 CH, TP CNY191.09) and WuXi XDC (2268 HK, TP HKD82.60).