Goldman Sachs: Laopu Gold (6181.HK) — Gold Price Weighs on Sales Yet Supports Margin; Cut Earnings/TP on Growth Deceleration, Maintain Buy
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Key Views
Goldman lowers 2026E net profit by 9% to RMB 8 billion and 2027–28E by 19–22%, reflecting slower sales growth (2027E same-store sales estimated at -10%), partially offset by higher margins. Offline channels outperform online, supported by new store expansion (low-double-digit YoY store growth in 1H26). The brand's social media engagement remains healthy. The company is testing market response via new products and member discounts.
Outlook
At 7× 2026E P/E, Goldman believes demand pressure is already priced in. If gold stabilizes or recovers (GS forecasts $4,900/oz by end-2026), the worst of the sales downturn may have passed. A ~10% dividend yield offers downside support. 2H26 monthly sales should improve over 2Q26.
Recommended Securities
Laopu Gold (6181.HK): Buy, TP HK$650.
Key exhibits
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