Nomura USD/CNY Fixing Model: Projection at 6.8023
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Nomura's USD/CNY central parity fixing model projects a reference rate of 6.8023 for June 26, 2026. This latest projection is 186 basis points lower than the previous forecast of 6.8209 and 28 basis points higher than the preceding official spot closing price. When incorporating the countercyclical factor, the adjusted model output stands at 6.8089, representing a decrease of 120 basis points from the prior fixing. The downward revision in the baseline forecast reflects shifting contributions from the basket's top-weighted currencies, specifically the Russian ruble, South Korean won, euro, and Mexican peso. Incorporating the countercyclical factor results in a further reduction, suggesting potential policy guidance aimed at maintaining exchange rate stability. The research also outlines recent daily model errors, charting deviations without the countercyclical adjustment from January 2025 through April 2026. Additionally, it tracks daily USD/CNY fixing changes in basis points from November 2025 to June 2026. Looking forward, Nomura provides a calendar of major events for the second half of 2026 that could influence currency policy. These key milestones include the Politburo meeting in late July, the National Day Golden Week in October, the APEC summit in November, and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December.