Mercedes-Benz: 1Q26 Briefing Call, a Calm Message
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Bernstein summarised the Mercedes-Benz 1Q26 briefing call, characterising management's message as calm. The company guided Q1 adjusted return on sales for Cars at the low end of the 3–5% range, while Vans is expected at the high end of 8–10%. Group wholesale volumes reached 499,700 units, up 9% sequentially but down 6% year-on-year. China sales fell 27%, reflecting intense competition and weak consumer confidence, though average transaction prices remained more stable. Excluding China, global passenger car wholesale volume grew 5%, with Europe up 7% and the US surging 20%. The global xEV share was 19%, and BEV sales grew 9%, driven by unexpectedly strong orders for the new electric GLC—the largest order intake for any Mercedes EV. Industrial free cash flow was healthy and consistent with full-year guidance. US wholesale of 81,100 units remained below retail sales of 87,050, leaving room for dealer restocking. Bernstein maintained its Market-Perform rating with a €61 target price, noting solid fundamentals alongside near-term headwinds. Full Q1 results are scheduled for release on 29 April 2026.