Goldman Sachs 618 Wrap: Boosted GMV with Divergent ROI on Discounts and Subsidies; Cosmetics Outperformed
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Goldman Sachs reported that the 2026 618 shopping festival achieved year-over-year Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) growth, though the expansion pace moderated compared to previous years. Online GMV growth decelerated to 6% year-over-year. A central finding is the pronounced divergence in return on investment (ROI) across categories and platforms regarding discounts and subsidies.
Cosmetics emerged as the standout performer, with sales surging over 20% year-over-year and delivering the highest ROI. In contrast, certain durable goods recorded lower returns on promotional spending. Leading e-commerce platforms maintained steady GMV growth, while emerging platforms captured higher growth rates through targeted, differentiated subsidy strategies.
Deeper discounting pressured profit margins across several brands, though cosmetics brands successfully preserved profitability through precise marketing. Consumer behavior shifted notably toward value-oriented purchases, with impulsive buying declining. Livestream commerce contributed approximately 30% of total GMV, yet its ROI remained lower than traditional shelf-based e-commerce.
Looking ahead, future promotional events are expected to prioritize ROI optimization rather than solely chasing absolute GMV expansion. If consumer confidence remains sluggish, subsequent GMV growth may decelerate further, making disciplined promotional strategies essential for brands.
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