Goldman Sachs on Aier Eye Hospital (300015): Results Review — 1H26 Revenue Broadly In Line, Net Profit Missed on Tax; Target Cut to Rmb13; Buy
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Goldman Sachs maintains Buy on Aier Eye Hospital (300015.SZ) but cuts its 12-month target price from Rmb15 to Rmb13; the Rmb8.52 share price implies 52.6% upside. 1H26 revenue rose 4% YoY to Rmb11.95bn, broadly in line with the Rmb12.47bn estimate, with outpatient visits up 8% to 10.02 million. Refractive and optometry services revenue each grew 6%, while cataract surgery added just 0.3% amid policy headwinds. Reported net profit fell 34% YoY to Rmb1.36bn, well below the Rmb2.24bn forecast, mainly on one-offs: Rmb524mn of back income taxes paid in May (Rmb348mn tax plus Rmb176mn late-payment fees) and roughly Rmb100mn of FX losses; excluding these, base net profit returned to positive growth. The announced Brazilian eye hospital chain acquisition is expected to close in September and consolidate from Q4, adding about 5% incremental revenue growth, though profitability requires a ramp-up period; management views the deal as a Latin American foothold for global expansion. The target price derives from a five-year exit P/E benchmarked against global healthcare services peers at 21.6x 2026E. Key risks: slower cataract premiumization, refractive price competition, and OK-lens pricing pressure from policy.