Goldman Sachs China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker
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Abstract
This Goldman Sachs tracker moved to weekly publication to monitor how the supply shock from higher energy prices affects Chinese economic activity, organized across four blocks: consumption and travel; production and investment; other macro activity; and markets and policy. Daily new-home sales in 30 cities rose modestly and ran above year-ago levels, while 16-city existing-home sales slipped slightly but stayed higher year-on-year; domestic passenger flights declined. Morning Consult consumer confidence eased and the August weighted PMI employment sub-index softened. Steel demand and output were broadly flat, coastal coal consumption fell slightly below year-ago levels, and year-to-date local government special bond issuance of RMB2.94 trillion still trailed last year. Official port container throughput dropped, though outbound cargo from 20 major ports recovered. US soybean export sales to China for the 2026/27 marketing year (September 1, 2026–August 31, 2027) rose slightly in the final week of August, and the oil demand nowcast slipped to 16.4mb/d. Interbank repo rates remained anchored near the OMO target with overnight repo below the 7-day rate; the RMB was broadly stable against the USD but depreciated versus the CFETS basket, and a rising implied counter-cyclical factor in the USDCNY fixing points to policymakers' preference for slower appreciation. The report contains no ratings or targets.