UBS: Bernstein — US Semiconductors: Intel, AMD — Q2 2026 CPU Channel and Share Dynamics
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Key Views
- Desktop: AMD unit share rose ~1pp to 31.7%, but it lost 2.4pp revenue share as Intel's ASP climbed ~9% (AMD's fell ~9%).
- Notebook: Intel's unit share slipped ~1pp to 59.1% yet gained ~2.1pp revenue share; AMD ASP fell ~4% QoQ, Intel rose ~10%.
- Server: Intel lost ~1.4pp unit share (AMD +0.9pp, ARM just under 1pp) but gained ~1.7pp revenue share; AMD's x86 server revenue share fell to 44.6%. Server ASPs jumped (Intel +22% on Granite Rapids mix, AMD +7%) on strong AI-driven demand, and both companies overdelivered.
Outlook
Intel sees Q3 clients roughly flat before Q4 softening; AMD plans for a weaker H2 on memory and component costs. Bernstein models AMD revenue rising from $34.639bn (2025) to $50.699bn (2026E), $92.645bn (2027E) and $124.818bn (2028E).
Recommended Securities
- Intel: Market Perform, $110 target.
- AMD: Outperform, $650 target (12-month).