Goldman Sachs NAURA (002371.SZ): China AI Tour: Memory and Advanced Logic Capex Drive Future Growth; Stable Gross Margin; Buy
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Goldman Sachs met NAURA's management in Beijing on September 9, 2026, discussing capex trends, gross margin trajectory and new tool expansion, and maintains Buy with a 12-month target of RMB1,200, implying 89.3% upside versus the September 11 close of RMB634.00. Management expects memory and advanced-logic customer spending to accelerate this year and outpace mature logic, with rising domestic SPE penetration supporting order growth; 2027 orders should grow sustainably as clients expand in China, with cleanroom construction and engineer availability the main pacing factors. Chinese memory and logic makers still hold low global share, underpinning several years of capex, and second-half seasonality should lift quarter-on-quarter revenue and orders. Gross margin is expected to hold around 40%, with swings driven by memory/logic mix; 2Q26's 39.3% (versus 40.8% in 1Q26 and 41.3% in 2Q25) reflected a one-off from consolidating Kingsemi. Component supply is tight near term but should ease via local and overseas suppliers. Goldman forecasts revenue rising from RMB39.4 billion (2025) to RMB50.9/65.6/81.1 billion in 2026-28E and EPS from RMB7.64 to RMB10.26/18.39/23.69, with the target based on 56x 2030E discounted P/E (to 2027E). Key risks: tighter US export restrictions delaying customer expansion and slower mature-node capacity additions.