China Macro Weekly (First Week of September 2026): Chemical Operating Rates Mostly Recover
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Ping An Securities' China macro weekly tracks high-frequency data for the first week of September 2026. Industrial production was mixed, with most chemical operating rates recovering, steel daily hot-metal output rising, and plate supply-demand improving while building materials softened; cement clinker capacity utilization, petroleum asphalt and soda ash utilization fell, float glass was flat, and Shandong independent refineries plus most chemicals recovered. Per CPCA data, pure-fuel light-vehicle production fell 56% YoY in August weeks 1–4, with hybrids and plug-ins down 17%. Property sales improved marginally: 30 major cities' new-home sales were -0.3% YoY (week to September 4), and four-week second-hand listing prices fell a narrower 0.28% MoM. Domestic demand stayed weak—August passenger-car retail -19% YoY (NEV -4%), four-week appliance retail -19.1%, daily box office RMB 88.75 million (-17.5%)—while express parcels rose 4.6%. Prices continued recovering: the Nanhua industrial index gained 3.3% weekly with petrochemicals up 7.3%; rebar futures +1.7% and coking coal spot +8.1%; the agricultural wholesale 200 index rose 0.7% MoM but fell 1.1% YoY. The report offers no quantitative forecast, flagging risks from insufficient growth-stabilizing policy, a deeper-than-expected overseas recession and geopolitical escalation.
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