Huatai Securities: Overblown Concerns Create a Buying Opportunity in CATL
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Huatai Securities argues that overblown concerns have created a buying opportunity in CATL (300750 CH/3750 HK), whose trailing twelve-month P/E sits at roughly the 2nd percentile of its history since listing, near an all-time low. In the firm's view, market worries over a major customer's supply diversification, a potential restoration of the consumption tax and reduced export rebates are already overpriced. Meanwhile, overseas electric-vehicle and energy-storage demand is accelerating, and the market underestimates commercial-vehicle battery demand plus next year's domestic storage demand, meaning the durability and visibility of CATL's earnings growth are significantly undervalued. Customer diversification supports the sustainability of its share recovery, overseas power batteries drive earnings quality, domestic storage is underpinned by grid peak-shaving gaps, and global storage installations should keep climbing — projected at 463 GWh in 2026 and 645 GWh in 2027. Huatai forecasts a 25% compound annual growth rate in net profit attributable to shareholders over 2026-2028. It maintains a Buy rating, keeps CATL on its conviction buy list, and sets target prices of RMB596.63 for the A-shares and HK$907.73 for the H-shares.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
