Goldman Sachs — InterContinental Hotels (IHG.L): Roadshow Feedback from CEO and CFO
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Key Views
- Management attributed the fee revenue growth gap to rate ramp-up at newly opened hotels; the group-level gap versus RevPAR plus NUG narrowed 40bps in 1H26.
- Unlike US peers, IHG sees no upward pressure on key money, supporting disciplined development and owner economics via IHG One Rewards.
- Six Senses could expand from 27 hotels to roughly 100.
- Co-brand credit card fees, the main long-term ancillary upside, are targeted to triple by 2028 versus 2023.
Outlook
With high-single-digit fee growth, EPS is expected to compound in the upper half of the 12–15% range. Goldman sees ~14% EPS CAGR (2025–30E) and ~48% return on investment (2026E), arguing this warrants a narrower valuation discount to US peers and supports its Buy rating. Risks include softer RevPAR, slower net unit growth, geopolitical demand shocks, travel restrictions, and FX volatility.