Goldman Sachs: AI and the Commodity Super Cycle - Data Center Driven Demand Reshaping
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Goldman Sachs argues that AI data center construction will ignite a commodity super cycle, with global data center electricity demand projected to surge by 150% by 2030. This expansion will significantly drive demand for critical metals. The report estimates that data centers' share of copper demand will rise from 3% in 2024 to 8% by 2030, representing an incremental volume of roughly two million tons. Similarly, aluminum's share is expected to climb from 2% to 5%, adding approximately 1.5 million tons of demand.
This massive power requirement will stimulate 50 GW of new gas-fired generation capacity by 2030 and double renewable energy installations, adding 200 GW of solar and 100 GW of wind capacity. Goldmant maintains bullish ratings on copper and aluminum, setting 2025 copper price targets at 10,500 USD per ton and 2026 targets at 11,000 USD per ton. Aluminum price targets stand at 2,800 USD per ton for 2025 and 3,000 USD per ton for 2026.
To capitalize on this structural demand growth, Goldman Sachs upgraded Freeport-McMoRan to a Buy rating with a 55 USD target price, and Alcoa to Buy with a 45 USD target. NextEra Energy remains a Buy at 80 USD, while Southern Company is rated Neutral at 85 USD. The report also notes that regional water consumption constraints could emerge as a critical bottleneck for data center development.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
