UBS Japan Food: US Soy Sauce, Mayonnaise and Candy Trends from Nielsen Data (October 2026)
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Drawing on Nielsen data, UBS examines October 2026 US sales trends for Kikkoman soy sauce, Kewpie mayonnaise and Morinaga HI-CHEW candy, finding that all three manufacturers have likely raised prices. Kikkoman's average selling price rose 6% year over year in October, yet volume declined only modestly, underscoring brand resilience. Kewpie's average selling price surged 34% year over year, largely reflecting shifts in promotion timing, while volume fell 37%, leaving sales volatile. Morinaga's HI-CHEW average selling price increased 12%, but volume dropped 19%, with momentum deteriorating further after the price increase. UBS tracks Nielsen data to identify average-selling-price changes, links them to promotion timing and price increases, and measures volume sensitivity to gauge brand momentum. Looking ahead, Kikkoman faces a high-base challenge in the second quarter, though underlying sales trends remain solid; Kewpie's sales are expected to recover from current levels; and Morinaga may need considerable time to regain its former strength. The report offers no specific stock recommendations.
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