Huachuang Securities Deep-Dive on J&T Global Express (01519.HK): Global Breakthrough, Quality Growth
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Huachuang Securities' deep-dive on J&T Global Express (01519.HK) argues the courier has shifted from reliance on external funding to self-sustaining cash generation, posting 2025 adjusted net profit of US$425 million, up 112.3% year over year. Southeast Asia remains the profit anchor: 2025 parcel volume reached 7.66 billion (+67.8%), market share climbed to 34.4%, and adjusted EBIT rose 77.5% to US$538 million. China returned to profit repair under 'anti-involution' policy, handling 11.615 billion parcels in 26H1 (+9.6%) for an 11.6% share, aided by the new Huadu hub. Other markets - Latin America and the Middle East - recorded their first full year of positive adjusted EBIT in 2025.
The report cites a mature, replicable expansion model, SF Express's strategic cross-shareholding and a share buyback. Huachuang maintains a 'Recommend' rating and a one-year target of HK$13.90, about 32% above the current HK$10.55, via sum-of-the-parts valuation (US$14.6 billion for Southeast Asia and other markets; RMB18.4 billion for China). Adjusted net profit is forecast at US$720 million, US$1.04 billion and US$1.38 billion for 2026-2028. Southeast Asian parcel volumes should compound at 15.2% over 2025-2029, and management is preparing US and European expansion in 2026. Risks include fiercer competition squeezing per-parcel revenue, slower overseas growth and weaker-than-expected cost reduction.