Barclays China: Booming Yet Bifurcated Exports
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Key Views
The export recovery is distinctly K-shaped. Growth is heavily concentrated in AI-related and green technology products, while low-tech and labor-intensive sectors—footwear and toys—remain in contraction, together representing about 15% of total exports. Semiconductors led with 122% growth and automatic data processing equipment rose 66%, jointly contributing roughly 8 percentage points and over 40% of year-to-date export gains. Green tech exports stayed robust: electric vehicles (+71%), wind turbines (+49%), lithium batteries (+45%), transformers (+33%), and solar cells (+26%).
China now accounts for over 30% of global exports in key AI-related products, far surpassing South Korea at approximately 6%. Exports to ASEAN hit a record $78.3 billion, growing 34.5% and contributing 6.2 percentage points. Export growth to the US slowed from 35.4% to 14%, though the value reached $43.5 billion.
Outlook
This capital-intensive concentration limits positive spillovers to employment and household consumption. On the import side, electromechanical products surged 47.5%, the fastest in over 16 years, while crude oil volumes plunged 41% to 29.3 million tons. The report expects exports to continue benefiting from the global AI capex cycle and energy transition.
Key exhibits
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