Goldman Sachs China Staples: Jan Check-in & LNY Color – Jan Shipment Uptick on LNY Calendar Shifts; Snacks/Condiment/Frozen Food Up; Expect Feb Data to Moderate
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Goldman Sachs reports that January 2026 shipments across China's consumer staples broadly benefited from a late Lunar New Year calendar effect, resulting in a full shipping month. Snacks, dairy, condiments, and frozen foods experienced accelerated shipment growth. Snack volumes grew by double digits, dairy by mid-single to double digits, and condiments and frozen foods saw roughly double-digit growth accompanied by selective price increases.
However, the report cautions investors to analyze combined January and February data, as February shipments are expected to slow significantly due to roughly 15-20 fewer shipping days year-on-year. Post-holiday inventory levels require close monitoring.
Performance diverged across beverages, baijiu, and beer. For baijiu, Feitian Moutai's retail sell-through and wholesale prices remain robust, supported by DTC expansion, while smaller brands recover slowly. In beverages, Dongpeng Drink and Nongfu Spring significantly outperformed peers. Beer manufacturers showed divergent inventory strategies, with Tsingtao Beer and Budweiser APAC potentially controlling January shipments.
Supportive factors for holiday retail demand include an extended nine-day holiday, projected 5.3% aviation and 5% railway passenger growth during the travel rush, and the distribution of billions of RMB in consumer vouchers by local governments.
Goldman Sachs recommends Dongpeng Drink, Nongfu Spring, Weilong, Haitian Seasoning (H-share), and Anjoy Food (H-share). Anjoy Food's A-shares were downgraded to Neutral due to reasonable valuations. Moutai and Mengniu/Yili are viewed as potential bottom-rebound candidates.