Goldman Sachs Global Weekly Kickstart: Publishing 2026 Global Macro Outlooks

Goldman Sachs publishes its 2026 global macro outlook, maintaining a constructive stance on global equities driven by sustained earnings growth. The bank forecasts a 13% price return for equities in 2026, or 15% including dividends in dollar terms. However, overall index returns are expected to moderate compared to 2024 and 2025. The macroeconomic foundation relies on continued global expansion and further measured monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Strategists argue that absent a recession, the probability of a severe equity market drawdown remains low despite elevated valuations. Interestingly, diversification strategies have proven increasingly effective. US equities recently underperformed, while factor strategies combining US growth and European value generated strong returns, alongside robust performance from non-technology sectors. Despite these trends, market concentration remains exceptionally high across regional, sectoral, and individual stock levels, particularly within the United States. As stock correlations decline, Goldman Sachs emphasizes the growing importance of active management and alpha generation. Performance over the past week was relatively muted globally, with emerging markets and Asian equities gaining 2.3% and 2.2% respectively. Energy and utilities outperformed, while consumer discretionary and technology lagged. In commodities, copper advanced 2.7%, while gold declined 4.8%.