Goldman Sachs: GC Telecom — 5G BTS Deployment Declines; Jan-Feb Telecom Service Revenues Down 2%
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During January and February 2026, China deployed 71,000 5G base stations, representing a 4% year-over-year decrease and bringing cumulative installations to 4.9 million. Concurrently, telecom service revenues fell 2% year-over-year to RMB 290 billion, while net 5G subscriber additions slowed to 31 million, down from 37 million in the prior year period.
Despite the domestic slowdown, manufacturing and export metrics for related equipment presented a contrasting narrative. Base station production remained flat year-over-year, while export volumes surged 19% in February, bolstered by high-value orders from South America. Furthermore, optical fiber and cable exports skyrocketed 64%, alongside robust growth in upstream materials, with CCL export prices rising 23% and PCB export values increasing 20%.
This dynamic highlights waning domestic infrastructure intensity offset by robust overseas demand. China Mobile and China Unison concluded the fourth quarter of 2025 with 642 million and 302 million 5G subscribers, achieving penetration rates of 64% and 69%, respectively. Meanwhile, major Taiwanese operators reported a combined 2% revenue increase to NT$43 billion.
Reflecting the ongoing deceleration in domestic network expansion, Goldman Sachs projects 540,000 new 5G macro base stations for 2026—an 8% decline from 2025's 588,000—and expects deployments to further recede to 500,000 in 2027.