Goldman Sachs Global Economics Review: August 28, 2026
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Goldman Sachs' August 28, 2026 global economics review covers US payroll revisions, Fed communication, and diverging policy abroad. The BLS preliminary benchmark revision cut March 2026 nonfarm payrolls by 79k, implying average monthly gains of 18k versus the currently reported 25k, but Goldman expects the final figure to be revised up—initial estimates have averaged roughly 100k below finals over the past six years—and continues to view the labor market as solid. Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut stressed that inflation is running above the 2% target and that the Fed's predominant focus should be on prices, suggesting a September hike is possible if August CPI and PPI prove strong; Goldman nonetheless forecasts ~0.2% m/m core CPI/PCE and an unchanged FOMC. It now expects the BoJ's first hike in September, with further hikes in January and July 2027 taking the policy rate to 1.75%. EM policy diverged: Korea +25bp to 3% (next hike 1Q27), the Philippines +25bp to 5% (two more to 5.5%), Thailand and Egypt unchanged at 1% and 19%, Hungary -25bp to 5.5%. Tariffs should shave 0.3pp off Canada's GDP growth, keeping the BoC on hold, while UK headline inflation peaks at 3.3% in November—slightly above the BoE—with the MPC on hold until 2027.