J.P. Morgan China: April Manufacturing PMIs Both Firmer Than Expected
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J.P. Morgan highlights that China's April 2026 manufacturing PMIs surpassed market expectations, indicating continued expansion driven by policy support and improving external demand. The official manufacturing PMI registered 51.2, beating the forecast of 50.8 and climbing from the prior 50.5. Similarly, the Caixin manufacturing PMI reached 51.8, exceeding the estimated 51.3 and the previous 51.1.
Both production and new order indices remained in expansionary territory at 52.0 and 51.5, respectively. Notably, the new export order sub-index rose to 50.8, signaling resilient global demand. However, the raw material purchase price index climbed to 54.0, reflecting rising cost pressures. The employment sub-index remained below the breakeven line, indicating a sluggish labor market recovery.
J.P. Morgan maintains its view of a moderate Chinese economic recovery. The firm notes that while the effects of policy easing are gradually materializing, the real estate sector continues to drag on broader economic momentum. The report projects second-quarter GDP growth to reach 5.5%, with a full-year forecast of 5.2%. Going forward, analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring subsequent property sales data and the effective implementation of government policies to sustain this growth trajectory.