Goldman Sachs: Lam Research (LRCX.US) at Communacopia + Technology 2026 — Key Takeaways
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Lam Research CFO Doug Bettinger and IR head Ram Ganesh spoke at the Communacopia + Technology conference in San Francisco on September 8-11, 2026, and Goldman Sachs highlights three takeaways. First, DRAM should be the biggest driver of 2027 WFE growth, followed by advanced foundry/logic, with NAND growing solidly; management did not quantify overall WFE growth but noted DRAM is closing the gap with advanced foundry/logic relative to 2026. Second, cleanroom availability remains the key capacity constraint, with new capacity coming online through end-2027 as customers engage around 2027 demand. Third, gate-all-around and backside power delivery are major technology inflections—each incremental 100k wafer starts expands Lam's SAM by roughly $1 billion—while increasingly 3D advanced packaging and memory lift TSV-related tool intensity. AI-driven demand is strong; CSBG benefits from high fab utilization, a NAND upgrade inflection and resilient mature-node spending; and management expects gross margin approaching the mid-50s% range in coming years on differentiated mix and pricing. China capex is growing more slowly than elsewhere and export controls preclude some sales, but management is confident in share where it can sell. Goldman maintains Buy, $380 target (35x normalized EPS of $10.75), 20.3% above the $315.84 September 9 close; risks include a NAND upgrade pause, tighter export limits and mix shift toward lithography.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
