Morgan Stanley: Global Technology — Memory, Foundry, AI Chips/Servers, and SPE Capex Outlook
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Morgan Stanley hosted a global technology webinar analyzing capital expenditure, cyclical, and secular outlooks across memory, foundry, AI chips and servers, and semiconductor equipment (SPE). Analysts discussed key players including Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC, and ASML. The report highlights that memory cycles follow a supply-driven pattern recurring approximately every four years. For 2026, shipments of GB200/300 NVL72 racks are expected to exceed 70,000 units, with monthly output ramping gradually and quarterly estimates showing acceleration in the second half. Key upcoming catalysts include ASML's first-quarter results on April 15 and TSMC's earnings on April 16. ASML's EUV low-NA tool shipments are projected to increase from 42 units in FY24 to 54 in FY26e and 84 in FY27e. The presentation detailed AI agent architecture, delineating the roles of memory for working and episodic storage, CPU for reasoning and planning, and GPU for large language model processing. Memory price trends show declines across DDR5 RDIMM, UDIMM, and SSD categories from April 2025 through March 2026. The industry is positioned at the intersection of cyclical and structural transformation, requiring close monitoring of capital expenditure trajectories.