Goldman Sachs Macro Overview: Latest Views and Forecasts
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Key Views
- Middle East conflict has lifted energy prices; 2026 global real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.5% y/y, with global core inflation reaching 2.8% by year-end.
- US: 2026 real GDP growth of 2.1%, supported by the AI boom and robust capex; December core PCE inflation at 2.9% on tariffs and energy; year-end unemployment at 4.4%. The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.5-3.75% for the remainder of 2026.
- Euro area: GDP growth of just 0.8% amid high energy prices and weak consumer confidence; core inflation to peak in 1Q27. The ECB is expected to hike 25bp in September to 2.5%, with risks skewed toward further tightening.
- China: GDP growth of 4.6%, supported by fiscal spending and resilient exports; CPI and PPI inflation rising to 1.0% and 2.0% on commodity price pass-through.
Outlook
US core PCE is expected to ease toward 2% in 2027 as tariff, energy, and AI demand effects fade. Goldman Sachs will monitor the Middle East conflict and its impact on regional oil flows.
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