Goldman Sachs: CXMT (688825.SS) — DRAM Demand Underpinned by AI and Customer Diversification; Ongoing Product Mix Upgrades; 2Q26 Far Above Expectations
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Key Views
- Citing the CHIPS 4 report, Goldman Sachs expects China DRAM demand to grow at a 50% CAGR over 2026-28E to USD 257.3bn by 2028E, with HBM the fastest-growing segment (+188% CAGR to USD 32.1bn).
- Proprietary LPDDR6 (peak speed 12,800 Mbps, capacity up to 16GB) samples have been delivered to key customers for validation, and volume production is accelerating.
- Post-results, 2026E net profit was raised 14% to RMB 183.833bn and revenue 11% to RMB 354.859bn; 2H26-2030E forecasts are largely unchanged.
Outlook
The valuation applies a 16.6x 2030E target P/E, discounted to 2027E at a 12.7% cost of equity (implied 2027E P/E of 24x). Key downside risks: heightened competition, weaker-than-expected demand, and geopolitical instability.
Recommended Securities
- CXMT (688825.SS): Buy; 12-month target price RMB 129.00.