Goldman Sachs on Songfa (603268): Hong Kong Non-Deal Roadshow Notes — Order Intake Stays Strong; More Capacity Expansion Details Confirmed; Buy
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Goldman Sachs published notes from Songfa Ceramics' (603268.SS) first Hong Kong non-deal roadshow since listing on September 9, 2026, maintaining Buy with a 12-month target of Rmb200—based on 12x 2028E P/E, the China–Korea shipyard average—implying 4.0% upside from Rmb192.40. Order momentum remains strong: Hengli Heavy Industry booked 253 new vessel orders in January–July 2026 (versus 207 in 1H26), management guides to over 300 for the full year and is negotiating LNG carrier orders. Gross margin has improved sequentially since Q2, with a record 25% in 2Q26 (+3.5ppts QoQ, +2.9ppts YoY); by vessel type, guidance is 15–20% for dry bulk, 25–30% for tankers, near 30% for VLCC and containers, with VLAC slightly above containers. The Phase 3 dry dock began operating in June 2026; two Phase 3 floating docks (1,200m long, 60m wide) should start around end-2026, and two Phase 4 dry docks (1,298m × 146m) in early 2027—together nearly doubling capacity. Phases 1–3 at full run-rate process 3 million tons of steel annually, which Goldman maps to roughly 4 million CGT of shipbuilding. Management sees no newbuild-price pressure, ramping Phase 4 against demand; engine capacity rises from 180 to 300 units annually by end-2027, supporting deliveries of 80+ ships in 2026, over 100 in 2027 and ultimately 200. Goldman expects Hengli to become the world's second-largest shipyard in 2027E.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
