Goldman Sachs: US Tariff Impact Tracker — Imports Set to Dip Next Week Before Sharper Rebound; Volatility Persists
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Goldman Sachs' latest weekly tariff impact tracker indicates that laden container ship volume from China to the US fell 2% week-over-week and 18% year-over-year for the week ending April 9. Looking ahead, container import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles are projected to decrease by 4% next week before rebounding sharply by 20% in two weeks. Trade uncertainty has intensified due to recent Supreme Court rulings and new Section 122 tariffs, complicating medium-term freight planning. However, countries facing lower effective tariffs may gradually increase their exports to the United States.
Ongoing geopolitical conflicts could push sea and air freight rates higher. While the Strait of Hormuz has limited direct impact on container capacity, global shipping rates may still rise due to increased fuel costs. In the air freight sector, approximately 15% of global capacity is currently affected, with Asia-to-Europe flight rates climbing 13%. Despite current market volatility, Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on a cyclical recovery within the transportation sector. Potential macroeconomic catalysts include anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, clearer tariff policies, and increased domestic manufacturing investments from major corporations. The firm highlights express delivery companies UPS and FDX (both rated Buy) as primary beneficiaries, leveraging their agile logistics networks to assist shippers in pivoting supply chains. Additionally, freight forwarders like EXPD and CHRW may benefit from heightened customs brokerage demand and ongoing market volatility.